Selepas lebih 10 tahun , Nick SOROS dan Waachaa masih lagi aktif di dunia MIRC.
Pada awal tahun 1998 server webnet menjadi popular apabila para penguna MIRC yang dahulunya lebih gemar berada di server Dalnet beralih server.Di era ini bermulalah perebutan Nick Name, Channel dan gelaran.
Dua nama atau nick name yang menjadi popular dikalangan “senior MIRC Webent” sekarang ialah SOROS dan Waachaa.Gandingan serasi dan mantap mereka berdua telah banyak memberi impak kepada irc webnet.Pro dan Kontranya memang ketara dan menjadi memori.Kecemerlangan mereka dalam dunia irc ini boleh dikelaskan sebagai
Modal insan yang patut menjadi panduan kepada user-user baru.
Kerakusan user lama dalam mengejar status pemain bergelar AOP, SOP dan MGR tidak banyak berubah hingga sekarang.Namun bagi dua nama diatas pangkat atau level acess bukan segalanya dalam dunia irc.Semangat yang kental dan tidak putus idea menjadikan Mereka sukar untuk ditewaskan dan layak dimartabatkan sebagai IRCOP.
Di sini saya mempunyai 31 sebab mengapa mereka berdua ini layak menjadi IRCOP.
1.Soros dan waachaaa antara user terawal mendaftarkan nick di server webnet.
2. Soros dan waachaaa tidak segan / malu menggunakan internat dimana-mana saja demi untuk Online mirc.
3. Soros dan waachaaa tidak suka bermain script untuk tujuan perang.
4. Soros dan waachaaa memanipulasi sepenuhnya mirc
5. Soros dan waachaaa mesra didunia irc dan lebih mesra bila rekreasi.
6. Soros dan waachaaa memiliki rahsia ayat power.
7. Soros dan waachaaa kekuatan mereka sebenarnya bermula dengan ASL.
8. Soros dan waachaaa sentiasa membawa disket back up.
9. Soros dan waachaaa dikenali oleh semua pemilik cyber café.
10. Soros dan waachaaa dikenali oleh kebanyakan IRCOP
11. Soros dan waachaaa Nick mereka pernah di froze oleh IRCOP
12. Soros dan waachaaa pernah memperdayakan IRCOP.
13. Soros dan waachaaa pernah Take Over nick user-user lain.
14. Soros dan waachaaa pernah take over channel milik user lain.
15. Soros dan waachaaa pernah take over nick IRCOP.
16. Soros dan waachaaa pernah menyebabkan IP addres CC di kill oleh IRCOP.
17. Soros dan waachaaa dituduh IRCOP sebagai clone .
18. Soros dan waachaaa merokok untuk menenangkan fikiran.
19. Soros dan waachaaa boleh menjadi peserta jalan kaki
20. Soros dan waachaaa menjadi kegilaan remaja lelaki dan perempuan
21. Soros dan waachaaa mengilakan gadis remaja
22. Soros dan waachaaa dimana-mana saja pasti ada saja.
23. Soros dan waachaaa berkongsi ilmu, petua dan gaya
24. Soros dan waachaaa boleh berkomunikasi dalam bahasa English di irc atau di dalam bas.
25. Soros dan waachaaa boleh menjadi soros dan menjadi waachaa dan menjadi waachaa dan soros.
26. Soros dan waachaaa boleh tipu dunia tapi jangan Soros dan waachaaa.
27. Soros dan waachaaa tidak percaya ilmu pengasih.
28. Soros dan waachaaa tidak suka menyamar nick lain.
29. Soros dan waachaaa sentiasa single di irc.
30. Soros dan waachaaa fleksible dimana saja termasuk atas bangunan.
31. Soros dan waachaaa hobi memancing dan memancing.
* nick waachaaa mirc webnet sekarang bukan waachaa yang dahulu.Tapi orang baru yang ambil kesempatan glamour atas nama waachaa.
Ingat!! Forex memerlukan Keyakinan Diri, Kepercayaan Diri, Kesabaran , Ketabahan dan Bersyukur.
dan Ingat!! Jangan Tamak, Jangan Mudah terpengaruh dengan ramalan orang, Jangan salahkan orang lain andai ramalanya tidak tepat.
Anda hanya perlu yakin dan beri tumpuan kepada indicator serta berita-berita semasa yang banyak mempengaruhi turun naik Forex.
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EUR/USD
3:55am EUR German Manufacturing PMI
Januari PMI : 54.4 Ramalan : 54.0
4:00am EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)
Januari PMI : 52.3 Ramalan : 52.3
Sekiranya PMI German masih 54.00 atau kurang = Euro down
Sekiranya PMI EUR manufacturing masih 52.3 atau kurang = Euro down
Harap-Harap Betul la ni,.
Saturday, 1st March 2008
German January manufacturing PMI 54.4 points; consensus 53.1 – sources
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - The German purchasing managers' index for manufacturing rose to 54.4 points in January from 53.6 in December and came in higher than expected, market sources said.
Economists polled by Thomson Financial had forecast the index to decline to 53.1 points.
14:32 02/29 (CEP News) Montreal - The final euro zone PMI manufacturing data for February, to be announced on Monday, is expected to come in at 52.3, unchanged from the preliminary estimate released in January. The final manufacturing PMI figure for January was 52.8.
Fortis Bank Nederland senior economist Nick Kounis is among those calling for the PMI indicator to remain unchanged from the preliminary release at 52.3
“If there is nothing special expected between the first and second estimates, there should be no revision to come,” he highlighted.
February’s PMI manufacturing indicator for Germany will also be released on Monday. The market is projecting the indicator to come in at 54.0, down slightly from 54.4 recorded in the previous month.
Januari PMI : 54.4 Ramalan : 54.0
4:00am EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)
Januari PMI : 52.3 Ramalan : 52.3
Sekiranya PMI German masih 54.00 atau kurang = Euro down
Sekiranya PMI EUR manufacturing masih 52.3 atau kurang = Euro down
Harap-Harap Betul la ni,.
Saturday, 1st March 2008
German January manufacturing PMI 54.4 points; consensus 53.1 – sources
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - The German purchasing managers' index for manufacturing rose to 54.4 points in January from 53.6 in December and came in higher than expected, market sources said.
Economists polled by Thomson Financial had forecast the index to decline to 53.1 points.
14:32 02/29 (CEP News) Montreal - The final euro zone PMI manufacturing data for February, to be announced on Monday, is expected to come in at 52.3, unchanged from the preliminary estimate released in January. The final manufacturing PMI figure for January was 52.8.
Fortis Bank Nederland senior economist Nick Kounis is among those calling for the PMI indicator to remain unchanged from the preliminary release at 52.3
“If there is nothing special expected between the first and second estimates, there should be no revision to come,” he highlighted.
February’s PMI manufacturing indicator for Germany will also be released on Monday. The market is projecting the indicator to come in at 54.0, down slightly from 54.4 recorded in the previous month.
26 Februari 2008 .Hari ni banyak news ni
Pandai-Pandai la kamu, becare full aa, kalau kena makan-makan la pips .
News 25 Hb Februari 2008
Ok geng, Ikut News Hari Isnin, Ada satu news yang medium impak dan satu high impak .Melibatkan Pair USD.
Mungkin berita baik, atau buruk.Masalahnya kita lambat dapat infomasi baik buruk news tersebut.Lewat seminitpun kita akan ketinggala sampai 50- 60 pip.
Oleh itu ,saya cadangakan kita stanby saja la Jam 9.50pagi (time us) atau jam 10.50 malam waktu kita Ini news Medium Impak .Dan selepas itu Jam 10.00 am (us ) atau 11.00pm waktu kita.Ini news High Impak.
Apapun ceritanya sila buat Buy dan sell di Point yang sama dan Letak Stop Lose.jangan letak stop lose terlalu besar.cukup la dalam 15pip atau 20pip.
Okey? Harap2 berjaya la.. heheh. Google adsene ni , peluki oo kan ekekke.
KIta buat blog cantik2 dia disable pula adsense kita .Puii Taik Hidung Masin.
-ForexFc-
Weekly Review and Outlook: Dollar Weakened on Recession Fear
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 16 08 23:00 GMT |
Weekly Review and Outlook
Dollar Weakened on Recession Fear
Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips) Change
(%)
AUDCAD 0.9147 0.8947 +200 +2.19%
EURCAD 1.4780 1.4494 +286 +1.94%
AUDJPY 97.89 96.11 +178 +1.82%
GBPCAD 1.9748 1.9440 +308 +1.56%
EURJPY 158.18 155.74 +244 +1.54%
Dollar
EURUSD 1.4682 1.4509 +173 +1.18%
USDJPY 107.73 107.33 +40 +0.37%
GBPUSD 1.9613 1.9458 +155 +0.79%
USDCHF 1.0929 1.1032 -103 -0.94%
USDCAD 1.0068 0.9989 +79 +0.78%
Euro
EURUSD 1.4682 1.4509 +173 +1.18%
EURGBP 0.7484 0.7454 +30 +0.40%
EURCHF 1.6048 1.6008 +40 +0.25%
EURJPY 158.18 155.74 +244 +1.54%
EURCAD 1.4780 1.4494 +286 +1.94%
Yen
USDJPY 107.73 107.33 +40 +0.37%
EURJPY 158.18 155.74 +244 +1.54%
GBPJPY 211.30 208.84 +246 +1.16%
AUDJPY 97.89 96.11 +178 +1.82%
NZDJPY 85.00 84.61 +39 +0.46%
Sterling
GBPUSD 1.9613 1.9458 +155 +0.79%
EURGBP 0.7484 0.7454 +30 +0.40%
GBPCHF 2.1437 2.1466 -29 -0.14%
GBPJPY 211.30 208.84 +246 +1.16%
GBPCAD 1.9748 1.9440 +308 +1.56%
Dollar weakened generally last week on intensified worry of recession in the US economy after dovish Bernanke Testimony as well as a string of poor economy data. That was a sharp contrast to the situation down under in Australia with Aussie boosted by strong economic data and a hawkish monetary policy statement from RBA. Euro recovered most of prior week's losses while the Japanese yen weakened in general after global stock markets stabilized. FOMC minutes will be the main feature next week but the another bunch of US economic data will likely be the trigger of further volatilities in the markets.
Dollar was lifted earlier last week after surprisingly solid retail sale report that suggested that consumers were just down but not out. Headline sales rose 0.3%, up from Dec’s 0.4% fall and beat expectation of -0.3% fall. A 0.6% gain in autos boosted overall sales in January. Ex auto-sales also rose 0.3%, beating expectation of 0.2%. However, the strength in dollar was brief and dollar turned around after dovish testimony of Bernanke.
Dollar weakened generally across the board after Bernanke's Testimony before Senate. While the testimony was brief, the message was clear. "The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased." Risks to growth in the US outweigh inflation and further rates are likely from Fed as the Fed needs to provide "adequate insurance against downside risks." Baseline forecast suggest growth in first half will be sluggish even though the change in monetary policy and fiscal stimulus package will support a stronger economy in the second half. Credit conditions could also tighten further.
Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan said that US economy is "clearly on the edge" of recesssion.He reiterated earlier comments that odds of an economic contraction are "50 percent or better."
Dollar was further hammed after surprisingly weak NY State Manufacturing index spurred further worries on risks of deeper slowdown and recession in the US economy. The index unexpectedly sank from 9.0 to -11.7, marking the first contraction reading in nearly three years. University of Michigan consumer sentiment also fell to a 16 year low of 69.3.
As the week closed, interest rates futures show a 68% chance Fed will lower its target for overnight lending between banks by 0.5 bps to 2.5% at its next scheduled meeting on Mar 18. The remaining bets are for a 0.75 bps reduction.
Other data from US saw business inventories rose 0.6% in Dec. Trade deficit in US narrowed more than expected by 6.9% from -63.1b -58.8b, better than expectation of -61.0b, thanks to rising exports and falling imports. The goods deficit with China also narrowed 0.6% to 18.8b. Jobless claims dropped 9k from 357k to 348k near to the 4 week average of 347k. TIC capital flow dropped more than expected to 56.5b in Dec. Industrial production rose 0.1% in Jan, inline with consensus while capacity utilization was unchanged at 81.5%. Import prices rose more than expected by 1.7% mom, 13.7% yoy in Jan.
Germany ZEW investor confidence unexpected improved from 15 year low of -41.6 to -39.5 in Feb. Q4 GDP in Eurozone rose 0.4% qoq, 2.3% yoy, slightly better than expectation of 0.3% qoq, 2.2% yoy. Industrial production dropped -0.1% in Dec, dragging yoy rate down to 1.3%. Eurozone trade balance posted first deficit in 16 months, at -4.2n.
BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. In the monthly report , BoJ left economic assessments unchanged, saying that the Japanese economy is still expanding moderately even though the space is slowing due to drop in housing investment. Fukui later mentioned that risks to the Japanese economy have heightened and inflation risks are smaller than those of the US and Europe.
Japanese Q4 GDP rose 0.9% qoq with annualized rate at 3.7%. Both were much stronger than expectation of 0.4% and 1.5%. The report suggests growth in Japan is still robust but two issues undermined the strength of the result. Firstly, the stronger Q4 result was somewhat inflated by lower base effect in Q3, in particular considering the second downward revision. Secondly, the GDP deflator dived further negative to -1.3% which suggests that real GDP was inflated. Other data from Japan saw industrial production rising 1.4% mom, 0.8% yoy.
Japanese wholesale inflation hits 27-year high. Domestic CGPI climbed from 2.6% yoy to 3.0% yoy, beating expectation of 2.8% on rising oil and material costs. Trade surplus rose to 1013b, slightly below consensus of 1027b. While exports to US continued to drop by 4.5% Dec, exports to Asia offset that and rose 8.2%. Exports to EU rose 2.4%. Consumer confidence in Jan dropped from 38.2 to 37.9 in Jan. Capacity utilization rose from 018.4 to 110.2 in Dec. Jan machine tools orders was flat.
Though, the Japanese yen paid little attention in these events and focused on the stock markets and carry trades instead. The yen was pressured with stock markets stabilized after Warren Buffett offered to help out troubled bond insurers.
The BOE Quarterly Inflation Report was the main feature in UK last week. While further easing is still expected from BOE, the Quarterly Inflation Report suggested that it wont 'be aggressive. The report noted that higher energy, food and import prices will push inflation up sharply in the near term, and could reach around 2.1% which Governor will be required to write a letter to Chancellor of Exchequer Darling. However, “tighter credit conditions and weaker real income growth (will) bear down on domestic demand” and will slow inflation back to the 2% target. The bank based its forecasts on investors' bets for the benchmark interest rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of the year.
Inflation data from UK were mixed. PI input rose sharply from revised 12.2% to record high of 19.1% in Jan, much stronger than expectation of 14.3%. Out PPI also climbed from 5.0% yoy to a 16 year high of 5.7%, beating consensus of 5.1%. Core PPI rose from 2.5% yoy to 3.1% vs expectation of 2.6%. Though, headline CPI dropped more than expected by -0.7% mom in Jan, while yoy rate climbed less than expected to 2.2% only. Core CPI indeed slowed from 1.4% yoy to 1.3% yoy. Both RPI and RPI-X beat expectation and climbed to 4.1$ yoy and 3.4% yoy respectively.
There was also additional support to sterling from improvements in the job markets. ILO unemployment rate unexpected fell from 5.3% to 5.2% for the three months smoothed to Dec. Claimant count held unchanged at 2.5% in Jan, dropping -10.8k, double the consensus expectation amount and reached the lowest level since June 1975.
Canadian dollar traded with an undertone last week and weakened sharply on Friday. Canadian dollar was pressured by disappointing trade surplus which shrank to 9 year low of 23.5b in Dec. Further selloff was seen after Dec manufacturing shipment dropped sharply by -3.4%.
Some volatility was seen in the Aussie during last week but after all, it did managed to strengthen solid expectation for further rate hike from RBA. In the Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, RBA revised inflation forecast for the year to Jun 2008 up from 3.25% to 3.75%, well above its 2-3% target band. The bank said the inflation risk was "uncomfortably high". More importantly "monetary policy is likely to need to be tighter in the period ahead." in absence of a "shift in economic risks to the downside". Markets generally took the statement as a signal that RBA will continue the current tightening cycle, even after the bank raised rates to 11 year high of 7.00% las week. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a record low of 4.1% in Jan, much better than expectation of 4.3%. Job growth rose to 26.8k, also much stronger than expectation of 15k.
Weekly Review and Outlook
Dollar Weakened on Recession Fear
Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips) Change
(%)
AUDCAD 0.9147 0.8947 +200 +2.19%
EURCAD 1.4780 1.4494 +286 +1.94%
AUDJPY 97.89 96.11 +178 +1.82%
GBPCAD 1.9748 1.9440 +308 +1.56%
EURJPY 158.18 155.74 +244 +1.54%
Dollar
EURUSD 1.4682 1.4509 +173 +1.18%
USDJPY 107.73 107.33 +40 +0.37%
GBPUSD 1.9613 1.9458 +155 +0.79%
USDCHF 1.0929 1.1032 -103 -0.94%
USDCAD 1.0068 0.9989 +79 +0.78%
Euro
EURUSD 1.4682 1.4509 +173 +1.18%
EURGBP 0.7484 0.7454 +30 +0.40%
EURCHF 1.6048 1.6008 +40 +0.25%
EURJPY 158.18 155.74 +244 +1.54%
EURCAD 1.4780 1.4494 +286 +1.94%
Yen
USDJPY 107.73 107.33 +40 +0.37%
EURJPY 158.18 155.74 +244 +1.54%
GBPJPY 211.30 208.84 +246 +1.16%
AUDJPY 97.89 96.11 +178 +1.82%
NZDJPY 85.00 84.61 +39 +0.46%
Sterling
GBPUSD 1.9613 1.9458 +155 +0.79%
EURGBP 0.7484 0.7454 +30 +0.40%
GBPCHF 2.1437 2.1466 -29 -0.14%
GBPJPY 211.30 208.84 +246 +1.16%
GBPCAD 1.9748 1.9440 +308 +1.56%
Dollar weakened generally last week on intensified worry of recession in the US economy after dovish Bernanke Testimony as well as a string of poor economy data. That was a sharp contrast to the situation down under in Australia with Aussie boosted by strong economic data and a hawkish monetary policy statement from RBA. Euro recovered most of prior week's losses while the Japanese yen weakened in general after global stock markets stabilized. FOMC minutes will be the main feature next week but the another bunch of US economic data will likely be the trigger of further volatilities in the markets.
Dollar was lifted earlier last week after surprisingly solid retail sale report that suggested that consumers were just down but not out. Headline sales rose 0.3%, up from Dec’s 0.4% fall and beat expectation of -0.3% fall. A 0.6% gain in autos boosted overall sales in January. Ex auto-sales also rose 0.3%, beating expectation of 0.2%. However, the strength in dollar was brief and dollar turned around after dovish testimony of Bernanke.
Dollar weakened generally across the board after Bernanke's Testimony before Senate. While the testimony was brief, the message was clear. "The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased." Risks to growth in the US outweigh inflation and further rates are likely from Fed as the Fed needs to provide "adequate insurance against downside risks." Baseline forecast suggest growth in first half will be sluggish even though the change in monetary policy and fiscal stimulus package will support a stronger economy in the second half. Credit conditions could also tighten further.
Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan said that US economy is "clearly on the edge" of recesssion.He reiterated earlier comments that odds of an economic contraction are "50 percent or better."
Dollar was further hammed after surprisingly weak NY State Manufacturing index spurred further worries on risks of deeper slowdown and recession in the US economy. The index unexpectedly sank from 9.0 to -11.7, marking the first contraction reading in nearly three years. University of Michigan consumer sentiment also fell to a 16 year low of 69.3.
As the week closed, interest rates futures show a 68% chance Fed will lower its target for overnight lending between banks by 0.5 bps to 2.5% at its next scheduled meeting on Mar 18. The remaining bets are for a 0.75 bps reduction.
Other data from US saw business inventories rose 0.6% in Dec. Trade deficit in US narrowed more than expected by 6.9% from -63.1b -58.8b, better than expectation of -61.0b, thanks to rising exports and falling imports. The goods deficit with China also narrowed 0.6% to 18.8b. Jobless claims dropped 9k from 357k to 348k near to the 4 week average of 347k. TIC capital flow dropped more than expected to 56.5b in Dec. Industrial production rose 0.1% in Jan, inline with consensus while capacity utilization was unchanged at 81.5%. Import prices rose more than expected by 1.7% mom, 13.7% yoy in Jan.
Germany ZEW investor confidence unexpected improved from 15 year low of -41.6 to -39.5 in Feb. Q4 GDP in Eurozone rose 0.4% qoq, 2.3% yoy, slightly better than expectation of 0.3% qoq, 2.2% yoy. Industrial production dropped -0.1% in Dec, dragging yoy rate down to 1.3%. Eurozone trade balance posted first deficit in 16 months, at -4.2n.
BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. In the monthly report , BoJ left economic assessments unchanged, saying that the Japanese economy is still expanding moderately even though the space is slowing due to drop in housing investment. Fukui later mentioned that risks to the Japanese economy have heightened and inflation risks are smaller than those of the US and Europe.
Japanese Q4 GDP rose 0.9% qoq with annualized rate at 3.7%. Both were much stronger than expectation of 0.4% and 1.5%. The report suggests growth in Japan is still robust but two issues undermined the strength of the result. Firstly, the stronger Q4 result was somewhat inflated by lower base effect in Q3, in particular considering the second downward revision. Secondly, the GDP deflator dived further negative to -1.3% which suggests that real GDP was inflated. Other data from Japan saw industrial production rising 1.4% mom, 0.8% yoy.
Japanese wholesale inflation hits 27-year high. Domestic CGPI climbed from 2.6% yoy to 3.0% yoy, beating expectation of 2.8% on rising oil and material costs. Trade surplus rose to 1013b, slightly below consensus of 1027b. While exports to US continued to drop by 4.5% Dec, exports to Asia offset that and rose 8.2%. Exports to EU rose 2.4%. Consumer confidence in Jan dropped from 38.2 to 37.9 in Jan. Capacity utilization rose from 018.4 to 110.2 in Dec. Jan machine tools orders was flat.
Though, the Japanese yen paid little attention in these events and focused on the stock markets and carry trades instead. The yen was pressured with stock markets stabilized after Warren Buffett offered to help out troubled bond insurers.
The BOE Quarterly Inflation Report was the main feature in UK last week. While further easing is still expected from BOE, the Quarterly Inflation Report suggested that it wont 'be aggressive. The report noted that higher energy, food and import prices will push inflation up sharply in the near term, and could reach around 2.1% which Governor will be required to write a letter to Chancellor of Exchequer Darling. However, “tighter credit conditions and weaker real income growth (will) bear down on domestic demand” and will slow inflation back to the 2% target. The bank based its forecasts on investors' bets for the benchmark interest rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of the year.
Inflation data from UK were mixed. PI input rose sharply from revised 12.2% to record high of 19.1% in Jan, much stronger than expectation of 14.3%. Out PPI also climbed from 5.0% yoy to a 16 year high of 5.7%, beating consensus of 5.1%. Core PPI rose from 2.5% yoy to 3.1% vs expectation of 2.6%. Though, headline CPI dropped more than expected by -0.7% mom in Jan, while yoy rate climbed less than expected to 2.2% only. Core CPI indeed slowed from 1.4% yoy to 1.3% yoy. Both RPI and RPI-X beat expectation and climbed to 4.1$ yoy and 3.4% yoy respectively.
There was also additional support to sterling from improvements in the job markets. ILO unemployment rate unexpected fell from 5.3% to 5.2% for the three months smoothed to Dec. Claimant count held unchanged at 2.5% in Jan, dropping -10.8k, double the consensus expectation amount and reached the lowest level since June 1975.
Canadian dollar traded with an undertone last week and weakened sharply on Friday. Canadian dollar was pressured by disappointing trade surplus which shrank to 9 year low of 23.5b in Dec. Further selloff was seen after Dec manufacturing shipment dropped sharply by -3.4%.
Some volatility was seen in the Aussie during last week but after all, it did managed to strengthen solid expectation for further rate hike from RBA. In the Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, RBA revised inflation forecast for the year to Jun 2008 up from 3.25% to 3.75%, well above its 2-3% target band. The bank said the inflation risk was "uncomfortably high". More importantly "monetary policy is likely to need to be tighter in the period ahead." in absence of a "shift in economic risks to the downside". Markets generally took the statement as a signal that RBA will continue the current tightening cycle, even after the bank raised rates to 11 year high of 7.00% las week. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a record low of 4.1% in Jan, much better than expectation of 4.3%. Job growth rose to 26.8k, also much stronger than expectation of 15k.
Mid-Day Report: Yen and Swiss Franc Rebound as NY State Survey Spurs Recession Worry
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 15 08 14:39 GMT |
Mid-Day Report: Yen and Swiss Franc Rebound as NY State Survey Spurs Recession Worry
The Japanese yen and Swiss Franc are boosted in early US session after a surprisingly weak NY State Manufacturing index spurred worries on risks of deeper slowdown and recession in the US economy. The index unexpectedly sank from 9.0 to -11.7, marking the first contraction reading in nearly three years. Stocks are set to have a lower open in the US. Yen and Swissy both rebounds strongly against the greenback on risk aversion. Meanwhile, dollar is mixed against other major currencies. Other data from US saw TIC capital flow dropped more than expected to 56.5b in Dec. Industrial production rose 0.1% in Jan, inline with consensus while Capacity utilization was unchanged at 81.5%. Import prices rose more than expected by 1.7% mom, 13.7% yoy in Jan.
Euro remains firm against the greenback today even though Eurozone trade balance posted first deficit in 16 months, at -4.2n. BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. In the monthly report , BoJ left economic assessments unchanged, saying that the Japanese economy is still expanding moderately even though the space is slowing due to drop in housing investment. Fukui later mentioned that risks to the Japanese economy have heightened and inflation risks are smaller than those of the US and Europe.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0928; (P) 1.1013; (R1) 1.1061; More
USD/CHF's sharp fall from 1.1105 and break of 1.0935 support indicates that rebound from 1.0729 has completed at 1.1105, after just failing mentioned key near term resistance of 1.1120 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1596 to 1.0836 at 1.1126 and 138.2% projection of 1.0836 to 1.1120 from 1.0729 at 1.1121). Intraday bias is flipped to the downside for a retest of 1.0729 low. Break will confirm that consolidation that started at 1.0836 has completed already. In such case, fall from 1.1596 has resumed for next downside target of 61.8% projection of 1.1596 to 1.0836 from 1.1105 at 1.0635 first. On the upside, above 1.0988 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.3283 (05 high) is still in force. The preferred interpretation is that fall from 1.3282 was initially contained at 1.1919 and turned into sideway triangle consolidation that completed at 1.2467, where the medium term down trend from 1.3283 resumed . Having said that, next medium term downside target will be 161.8% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2467 at 1.0260. Also, such medium term decline is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 1.8305 (00 high) which could extend further to parity. Sustained break of 1.1596 is needed to indicate whole down trend from 1.3283 has completed. Otherwise, long term outlook will remain bearish
Mid-Day Report: Yen and Swiss Franc Rebound as NY State Survey Spurs Recession Worry
The Japanese yen and Swiss Franc are boosted in early US session after a surprisingly weak NY State Manufacturing index spurred worries on risks of deeper slowdown and recession in the US economy. The index unexpectedly sank from 9.0 to -11.7, marking the first contraction reading in nearly three years. Stocks are set to have a lower open in the US. Yen and Swissy both rebounds strongly against the greenback on risk aversion. Meanwhile, dollar is mixed against other major currencies. Other data from US saw TIC capital flow dropped more than expected to 56.5b in Dec. Industrial production rose 0.1% in Jan, inline with consensus while Capacity utilization was unchanged at 81.5%. Import prices rose more than expected by 1.7% mom, 13.7% yoy in Jan.
Euro remains firm against the greenback today even though Eurozone trade balance posted first deficit in 16 months, at -4.2n. BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. In the monthly report , BoJ left economic assessments unchanged, saying that the Japanese economy is still expanding moderately even though the space is slowing due to drop in housing investment. Fukui later mentioned that risks to the Japanese economy have heightened and inflation risks are smaller than those of the US and Europe.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0928; (P) 1.1013; (R1) 1.1061; More
USD/CHF's sharp fall from 1.1105 and break of 1.0935 support indicates that rebound from 1.0729 has completed at 1.1105, after just failing mentioned key near term resistance of 1.1120 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1596 to 1.0836 at 1.1126 and 138.2% projection of 1.0836 to 1.1120 from 1.0729 at 1.1121). Intraday bias is flipped to the downside for a retest of 1.0729 low. Break will confirm that consolidation that started at 1.0836 has completed already. In such case, fall from 1.1596 has resumed for next downside target of 61.8% projection of 1.1596 to 1.0836 from 1.1105 at 1.0635 first. On the upside, above 1.0988 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.3283 (05 high) is still in force. The preferred interpretation is that fall from 1.3282 was initially contained at 1.1919 and turned into sideway triangle consolidation that completed at 1.2467, where the medium term down trend from 1.3283 resumed . Having said that, next medium term downside target will be 161.8% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2467 at 1.0260. Also, such medium term decline is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 1.8305 (00 high) which could extend further to parity. Sustained break of 1.1596 is needed to indicate whole down trend from 1.3283 has completed. Otherwise, long term outlook will remain bearish
TFN NEWS BRIEFING: Macroeconomics highlights to 10:10 GMT
Sat, Feb 16 2008, 10:25 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
2008-02-15 23:36:39
Metals at a glance
NEW YORK (AP) - The following are key metals settlement prices Friday,
compared with late Thursday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange:
April gold $906.10, down $4.70 an ounce
March silver $17.118, down 13.7 cents an ounce
March copper $3.5230, up 3.5 cents a pound
http://www.afxnews.com
2008-02-15 23:36:39
Metals at a glance
NEW YORK (AP) - The following are key metals settlement prices Friday,
compared with late Thursday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange:
April gold $906.10, down $4.70 an ounce
March silver $17.118, down 13.7 cents an ounce
March copper $3.5230, up 3.5 cents a pound
MARKET SNAPSHOT: Market Still Facing Headwinds From Credit, Economy
Sat, Feb 16 2008, 05:05 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
MARKET SNAPSHOT: Market Still Facing Headwinds From Credit, Economy
By Carla Mozee
Investors will look for U.S. stock gains to continue for a second consecutive week, but the market faces high hurdles from the ongoing credit crisis and recession fears that continue to hang over the market.
Market players will turn their attention to results from retailing giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and a consumer-price inflation report that will shed more light on consumer activity in a sluggish economy.
A close eye will also be paid to action in the bond-insurance market, after New York Governor Eliot Spitzer warned Thursday that bond insurers have to move quickly to recapitalize themselves to keep their AAA ratings.
Fresh off the central bank's downgrade of the U.S. economy, investors will return from Monday's holiday to reports from the beleaguered housing sector and results from J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) and tech heavyweight Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)
A three-day snapback rally, interrupted by a sell-off on Thursday, was enough to pull the major stock indexes higher this week, but it wasn't enough to convince Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, that the market is ready to extend gains.
"As soon as you got some upside, people came in to sell. When you're selling bounces rather than buying dips, that's a clear indication that the overall trend is lower," he said.
Wall Street also will watch for results from European banking firms, many of which have been hit by the U.S. mortgage meltdown.
While concerns about recession loom large on Wall Street, Liro said that he considers the weak performance of the financial sector as the most "debilitating" factor for the market.
If the constant "litany of admissions of bigger write-downs and charges continues, it's has to be a negative next week," he added.
Britain's Barclays PLC (BCS) will report on Tuesday and France's BNP Paribas , which has warned of lower fourth-quarter profit, will report Wednesday. This week, Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBS) recorded a $13.7 billion write-down in the fourth quarter related to its extensive exposure to the U.S. mortgage market.
Results are also due from Societe Generale , the French bank in the middle of a rogue-trading scandal that is expected to result in more than $7 billion of losses at the company.
Steven Sachs, head of trading at Rydex Investments, foresees little chance that stocks will move higher next week, particularly if Wednesday's consumer-price index report shows that consumers shelled out more money for goods and services in January.
A miss in expectations for CPI readings to remain steady "given Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on the Hill and [Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson's claim that inflation is not a concern and it will moderate" would hit stocks, said Sachs, who met the monetary officials' view about inflation with skepticism.
Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast the CPI to remain unchanged at 0.3%. Stripping out volatile prices for food and energy, core consumer prices are expected to stay at 0.2%.
As investors prepped for the upcoming inflation report and highly anticipated results from Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, signs abounded that consumers (whose spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy) are becoming increasingly reluctant to part from their cash.
Consumer-electronics retailer Best Buy Co. (BBY) cut its full-year earnings forecast Friday because of lackluster sales after the holiday season, then consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since 1992, according to a survey by the University of Michigan and Reuters.
Those developments followed Bernanke's congressional testimony Thursday said that the central bank is projecting slower growth for 2008 than in previous forecasts. Investors will hear more from the Fed on Wednesday when minutes from its most recent meeting will be released.
Investors also will get a look on Friday at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing survey, whose poor showing last month set off alarm bells to many on Wall Street that recession was on its way.
"Bad news is we are probably going to be in a recession. The good news is that while rate cuts cannot stop a recession, they can help to reduce the severity," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards. "But after the rally, the dominant trend is still down, and I think that's probably going to be the direction on balance next week."
Earnings, reports
Following the Presidents Day holiday on Monday, investors on Tuesday will receive results from Wal-Mart and look for further insight into how consumers are holding up during the current economic slowdown.
Wal-Mart is expected to report a 10% rise in profit to $1.02 a share on sales of $107 billion, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. But in its most recent sales release, the company posted a soft 0.5% gain in same-store sales for January, below expectations of 2% growth.
Chipmaker Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) will post results Wednesday. Utility firm PG&E Corp. (PCG) and financial-software provider Intuit Inc. (INTU) will report on Thursday.
Fourth-quarter earnings growth for companies in the S&P 500 continued to weaken this past week, and now stands at negative 21.1%.
"That was down mostly due to estimate cuts to American International Group Inc. (AIG)," said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Financial.
The insurer reported that its auditor questioned how the company values some of its derivatives. AIG, however, said that it has appropriate controls and procedures in place to value such exposures.
Earnings growth is on track for the worst year-over-year decline since 2001. Of the 480 companies that already have reported results, 27% of them have missed Wall Street's estimates. That's above the long-term average of 20% of companies that post below than expected figures.
The National Association of Home Builders will release its home-builder sentiment index on Wednesday, and the Commerce Department will release its January report on building permits and housing starts. Housing starts are expected remain steady, with 1.01 million homes slated for construction.
Friday's market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended down 26 points at 12,348.21, but posted a 1.4% rise for the week.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 1 point to 1,349.99 for a 1.4% weekly gain. The Nasdaq Composite Index (RIXF) fell Friday by 11 points to 2,321.80 but rose 0.7% for the week.
Treasury bonds mostly rose, putting yields under pressure, as investors fled to the safety of government debt on rekindled worries about the U.S. economy and the credit markets.
Crude-oil ended nearly flat at $95.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold for April delivery fell $4.70 to end at $906.10 an ounce, while platinum futures extended their record-breaking run Friday on persistent worries about supply disruptions in South Africa. Platinum for April delivery soared as high as $2,079.90 an ounce.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 16, 2008 00:05 ET (05:05 GMT)
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
MARKET SNAPSHOT: Market Still Facing Headwinds From Credit, Economy
By Carla Mozee
Investors will look for U.S. stock gains to continue for a second consecutive week, but the market faces high hurdles from the ongoing credit crisis and recession fears that continue to hang over the market.
Market players will turn their attention to results from retailing giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and a consumer-price inflation report that will shed more light on consumer activity in a sluggish economy.
A close eye will also be paid to action in the bond-insurance market, after New York Governor Eliot Spitzer warned Thursday that bond insurers have to move quickly to recapitalize themselves to keep their AAA ratings.
Fresh off the central bank's downgrade of the U.S. economy, investors will return from Monday's holiday to reports from the beleaguered housing sector and results from J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) and tech heavyweight Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)
A three-day snapback rally, interrupted by a sell-off on Thursday, was enough to pull the major stock indexes higher this week, but it wasn't enough to convince Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, that the market is ready to extend gains.
"As soon as you got some upside, people came in to sell. When you're selling bounces rather than buying dips, that's a clear indication that the overall trend is lower," he said.
Wall Street also will watch for results from European banking firms, many of which have been hit by the U.S. mortgage meltdown.
While concerns about recession loom large on Wall Street, Liro said that he considers the weak performance of the financial sector as the most "debilitating" factor for the market.
If the constant "litany of admissions of bigger write-downs and charges continues, it's has to be a negative next week," he added.
Britain's Barclays PLC (BCS) will report on Tuesday and France's BNP Paribas , which has warned of lower fourth-quarter profit, will report Wednesday. This week, Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBS) recorded a $13.7 billion write-down in the fourth quarter related to its extensive exposure to the U.S. mortgage market.
Results are also due from Societe Generale , the French bank in the middle of a rogue-trading scandal that is expected to result in more than $7 billion of losses at the company.
Steven Sachs, head of trading at Rydex Investments, foresees little chance that stocks will move higher next week, particularly if Wednesday's consumer-price index report shows that consumers shelled out more money for goods and services in January.
A miss in expectations for CPI readings to remain steady "given Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on the Hill and [Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson's claim that inflation is not a concern and it will moderate" would hit stocks, said Sachs, who met the monetary officials' view about inflation with skepticism.
Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast the CPI to remain unchanged at 0.3%. Stripping out volatile prices for food and energy, core consumer prices are expected to stay at 0.2%.
As investors prepped for the upcoming inflation report and highly anticipated results from Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, signs abounded that consumers (whose spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy) are becoming increasingly reluctant to part from their cash.
Consumer-electronics retailer Best Buy Co. (BBY) cut its full-year earnings forecast Friday because of lackluster sales after the holiday season, then consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since 1992, according to a survey by the University of Michigan and Reuters.
Those developments followed Bernanke's congressional testimony Thursday said that the central bank is projecting slower growth for 2008 than in previous forecasts. Investors will hear more from the Fed on Wednesday when minutes from its most recent meeting will be released.
Investors also will get a look on Friday at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing survey, whose poor showing last month set off alarm bells to many on Wall Street that recession was on its way.
"Bad news is we are probably going to be in a recession. The good news is that while rate cuts cannot stop a recession, they can help to reduce the severity," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards. "But after the rally, the dominant trend is still down, and I think that's probably going to be the direction on balance next week."
Earnings, reports
Following the Presidents Day holiday on Monday, investors on Tuesday will receive results from Wal-Mart and look for further insight into how consumers are holding up during the current economic slowdown.
Wal-Mart is expected to report a 10% rise in profit to $1.02 a share on sales of $107 billion, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. But in its most recent sales release, the company posted a soft 0.5% gain in same-store sales for January, below expectations of 2% growth.
Chipmaker Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) will post results Wednesday. Utility firm PG&E Corp. (PCG) and financial-software provider Intuit Inc. (INTU) will report on Thursday.
Fourth-quarter earnings growth for companies in the S&P 500 continued to weaken this past week, and now stands at negative 21.1%.
"That was down mostly due to estimate cuts to American International Group Inc. (AIG)," said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Financial.
The insurer reported that its auditor questioned how the company values some of its derivatives. AIG, however, said that it has appropriate controls and procedures in place to value such exposures.
Earnings growth is on track for the worst year-over-year decline since 2001. Of the 480 companies that already have reported results, 27% of them have missed Wall Street's estimates. That's above the long-term average of 20% of companies that post below than expected figures.
The National Association of Home Builders will release its home-builder sentiment index on Wednesday, and the Commerce Department will release its January report on building permits and housing starts. Housing starts are expected remain steady, with 1.01 million homes slated for construction.
Friday's market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended down 26 points at 12,348.21, but posted a 1.4% rise for the week.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 1 point to 1,349.99 for a 1.4% weekly gain. The Nasdaq Composite Index (RIXF) fell Friday by 11 points to 2,321.80 but rose 0.7% for the week.
Treasury bonds mostly rose, putting yields under pressure, as investors fled to the safety of government debt on rekindled worries about the U.S. economy and the credit markets.
Crude-oil ended nearly flat at $95.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold for April delivery fell $4.70 to end at $906.10 an ounce, while platinum futures extended their record-breaking run Friday on persistent worries about supply disruptions in South Africa. Platinum for April delivery soared as high as $2,079.90 an ounce.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 16, 2008 00:05 ET (05:05 GMT)
Metals at a glance
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 23:51 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) - The following are key metals settlement prices Friday, compared with late Thursday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange:
April gold $906.10, down $4.70 an ounce
March silver $17.118, down 13.7 cents an ounce
March copper $3.5230, up 3.5 cents a pound
Treasurys higher on weak manufacturing
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 22:58 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) - Long-term Treasury prices rose Friday after the New York Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing in its region contracted this month. Another gauge showed that nationwide consumer confidence skidded to a 16-year low.
The news sent the yield on the rate-sensitive two year note briefly down to its weakest level in four years. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The New York Fed's Empire State index of factory activity plunged almost 21 points to a negative 11.7 reading, the weakest level in almost three years. Readings below zero show shrinkage. February also marked the fourth straight decline for the index. Economists had expected a much healthier reading of 5.75, according to Thomson/IFR.
The report helps build a case that the economy is on the brink of recession, although a recession requires two consecutive quarters of contraction and can only be declared in hindsight.
Separately, the Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 69.6 this month, its worst level since 1992 and down sharply from 78.4 in January. Although the news triggered a strong reaction in the bond market, some economists caution that consumer cash flow is a more tangible metric than sentiment readings.
Although the data has negative portents for the economy, it is helpful to the Treasury market, as investors generally turn to government-backed bonds when they are worried about the economy.
In addition, the report puts extra pressure on the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. The central bank cut the overnight Fed funds rate by 1.25 percentage points in January. Fixed-income investors want to see more rate cuts to rejuvenate ailing debt markets.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 9/32 to 97 24/32 with a yield of 3.77 percent, down from 3.82 percent late Thursday, according to BGCantor Market Data.
The 30-year long bond gained 25/32 to 96 24/32 with a yield of 4.58 percent, down from 4.65 percent the day before.
However, there was some selling pressure on short-term notes.
The 2-year note fell 3/32 to 100 12/32 with a 1.92 percent yield, up from 1.90 percent late Thursday. Immediately after the sentiment report the 2-year yield touched 1.82 percent, its worst level since 2004.
After hours trade had no impact on yields. At 5:30 p.m. Eastern the 10-year yield remained 3.77 percent, the 30-year yield was still 4.58 percent and the 2-year yield stood at 1.92 percent.
The yield on the 3-month note fell to 2.21 percent from 2.27 percent on Thursday, as the discount rate dropped to 2.16 percent from 2.24 percent.
In other data news, the Fed said industrial output rose modestly last month, due to strength in the utility sector. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in January, in line with December's rise and analysts' expectations.
Separately, the Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 1.7 percent in January, as oil prices jumped. In December, prices slipped 0.2 percent.
Demand for Treasurys Thursday also was stoked by a complex barrage of negative developments elsewhere in the credit markets. Since the subprime issue first surfaced last summer, Treasurys have been the asset of choice for investors spooked by the unraveling of normally stalwart forms of debt assets.
This week saw turmoil in the market for short-term auction-rate munis when bidders could not be found for weekly notes offered by a number of top-rated local government issuers. There also are mounting problems in the leveraged loan market, as well as some ongoing weakness in corporate short-term commercial paper.
"In 25 years of working in this business, I don't believe I have seen more market disruption from so many different sources," said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed-income trading at Morgan Keegan.
The unusual degree of queasiness about debt issued by highly reliable companies and municipalities is linked to worries about bond insurers that unwisely backed subprime debt. There are concerns that they may not be able to shore up enough capital to withstand an expected avalanche of defaults.
One of the wobbly bond insurers, FGIC Co., agreed to be split into two separate entities. One would house its structured finance business where its troubled subprime assets are sheltered. The other would contain the municipal bonds that FGIC backs which normally are considered desirable.
Bear market looms, but will it linger?
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 22:00 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) - Bear markets are a bit like recessions: Investors don't know they're in one until it's almost over. But they can feel the pain.
Although a bear market can't be officially declared yet, traders are certainly pessimistic. The Standard & Poor's 500 index posted another lackluster week as Wall Street's three main stock gauges hovered at their lowest levels of the year.
The four-year bull run had catapulted equities markets to all-time highs, with the Dow Jones industrial average smashing through the 14,000 mark in October. A growing number of analysts believe a bear market is now under way, but that doesn't mean shrewd investors can't make money.
"I do think we are going to end up being in a bear market because the problems with financial stocks are continuing to drag out," said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist for New York-based Meridian Equity Partners. "Money will flow from one thing to the next, one week investors will go bottom-fishing and then they'll sell off on bad news."
Dunay said "it is all about the fast money" these days as big institutional investors -- such as hedge funds -- lay down bets and cash out quick. That offers some explanation for how stocks have behaved during the past three weeks -- and clues about what to expect.
This past week, major indexes finished slightly higher. The previous week, the indexes gave up more than 4 percent; and, before that, two days of stunning gains were enough to give the Dow its first weekly advance of 2008.
Behind these gyrations are fears that the economy continues to slow, and is even sinking into recession. Analysts are worried that the subprime crisis that roiled markets since the summer are working their way deeper into the economy.
Banks have racked up about $150 billion in write-offs from bad bets on asset-backed securities. And there's continued evidence the pain is spreading: This past week bond insurer Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. said it wanted to separate into two companies, splitting its municipal bond business from its insurance on riskier financial instruments.
Meanwhile, recent data indicates that consumer spending -- the biggest driver of the U.S. economy -- is slowing. The full effects of this would be widespread, hurting everything from profit at retailers to employment.
All of that could easily tip major market indexes into the technical definition of a bear market, which is when stocks are down 20 percent from a recent high. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite are all on the verge of hitting that mark.
The S&P 500, considered the broadest market indicator, was down 13.75 percent from its Oct. 9 high as of Friday. The Dow was down 12.82 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was off 18.79 percent, both from their October highs.
However, experts warn that the bear market label might give investors a false impression that they're locked into losses.
"There's an old adage that fortunes are made in bear markets, but you just don't know it at the time," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "There are trading opportunities because there are some strong spikes. ... Emblematic of a bear market is that you sell into strength and buy on the dip."
Krosby said that investors should look for solid companies that are "beaten down for no apparent reason" that will provide long-term opportunity. Even more specifically, she said, at some point, financial companies like banks and brokerages will truly be the sector to watch.
Investment banks like Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. have plunged in the past year on credit concerns. This past week analysts who cover the financial sector warned that even Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- which has so far escaped the brunt of the crisis -- will begin to show strain when it reports first-quarter results next month.
Dunay agrees that the financial sector will be a crucial one for a turnaround. In the meantime, he said there are different strategies short-term and long-term investors should take.
"The idea is if you're longer term, the investing style will be to preserve your capital," he said. "For short-term traders, you're just waiting around for the next big wave."
Nebraska home sales fall
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 21:41 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - Sales of existing homes dropped last year in Nebraska, but the figures still painted a brighter picture than national trends.
The latest figures from the National Association of Realtors show that Nebraska sales of used single-family homes, town homes, condos and co-ops plummeted 17.6 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007 and 4.9 percent for the year.
That compares favorably with national sales figures: a plunge of 20.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 12.8 percent for the year, compared with 2006 figures.
Sales of existing homes fell in 45 states during the October-December quarter, the association said.
Nebraska's figures also were not as bad as those for the Midwest as a whole.
Midwest sales dropped 18.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 10.6 percent for the year.
The figures reflect adjusted annual rates, not actual sales records, in order to factor out season variations for resales. The association said the rate for any quarter "represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters."
Prices are another measure of the housing industry's well-being, suggesting good news for Omaha and Lincoln.
Lincoln's median price for the quarter rose to $138,800 from $137,700, an increase of 0.7 percent. Omaha's rose 2.1 percent, to $142,800 from $136,200.
Median home prices fell in more than half of the 150 metropolitan areas surveyed by the association.
Walter Molony, a spokesman for National Association of Realtors, said the two regions' "price performance would indicate a little bit better balance between buyers and sellers" than many other parts of the country, where buyers are having their financial way with sellers.
Doug Rotthaus, executive vice president of Realtors Association of Lincoln, said he thinks the relatively good numbers relate "to the overall stability of the market."
"We have a history of slower growth but more steady growth," Rotthaus said. "Our numbers indicate that we didn't go up as rapidly, but we're not seeing that correction in the overall proportion as some areas of the country."
In fact, more existing homes were sold in Lincoln last year, 2,922, than in 2006, 2,874. The record was 3,030 in 2005, Rotthaus said.
"The demand for existing homes is somewhat steady," he said, but there are more homes on the market than usual. The latest figure he had 2,083 on Dec. 31, which was about 1.5 percent more single-family homes, including new ones, than the same date a year earlier.
He also said Lincoln had fewer new home starts last year: 843 permits issued in 2007, versus 1,021 in 2006.
Molony with the national realtors group said the states and metropolitan areas that are doing better are the ones "that preserve good affordability conditions."
Lawrence Yun, the Realtors Association's chief economist, said the healthiest housing markets "generally are moderately priced and are experiencing job growth."
Nebraska has long been among the most affordable states for housing. A 2006 U.S. Census report listed Nebraska No. 39 for the median price of owner-occupied housing units, $119,200, versus the U.S. median of $185,200 and No. 1 California, at $535,700.
The Nebraska unemployment rate remains low as well: 3.2 percent in December, compared with 5 percent nationally.
The state Labor Department says Nebraska has added 13,571 jobs since December 2006, a growth rate of 1.4 percent.
Dollar down after weak manufacturing
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 21:18 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) - The dollar extended its slide Friday against most major currencies after weak manufacturing data and consumer sentiment drove home Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments about a gloomy economy and the possibility of further interest rate cuts.
Lower interest rates can jump-start a country's economy, but may weigh on its currency as traders transfer funds to countries where they can earn higher returns.
The 15-nation euro rose to $1.4678 Friday from $1.4633, but the dollar jumped higher against the pound. The British currency fell to $1.9603 from $1.9691.
The dollar also slipped to 107.69 Japanese yen from 107.93 yen and dropped to 1.0925 Swiss francs from 1.0973 francs.
A New York Federal Reserve survey showed that manufacturing conditions in the region had deteriorated, while the central bank said that the country's industrial output rose by only 0.1 percent in January. The increase in industrial production was due mostly to higher output at utility companies because of the weather.
A preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence sank in February to a 16-year low.
Bernanke told Congress on Thursday the economy outlook was gloomy and signaled a readiness to keep on lowering a key interest rate to shore things up.
Bernanke also told the Senate Banking Committee that the one-two punch of housing and credit crises has greatly strained the economy. And he forecast sluggish growth in the near term. Bernanke also noted that hiring has slowed and that people are likely to tighten their belts further because of high energy prices and plummeting home values.
In other New York trading, the dollar rose to 1.0091 Canadian dollars from 99.99 Canadian cents.
New York Money Market Rate Indications
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 21:02 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
New York Money Market Rate Indications
Bankers acceptances at 3:46 p.m. New York time.
1M 3.12
2M 3.10
3M 3.70
6M 2.95
9M 2.88
1Y 2.83
Federal funds: days high 3.15; low 2.93: latest bid 3.00; offered 3.06; prime lending rate at major banks 6.00; broker call loan rate 4.75
Dealer-placed commercial paper
30 days 3.07
60 days 3.05
90 days 3.03
Treasury bills
30 days 2.33-32 dn .120
90 days 2.15-14 dn .080
180 days 2.02-01 dn .020
Moody's yield figures
AAA corps 5.67
Argentina Stks Follow Regional Mkts Lower; Bonds Edge Higher
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:53 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Argentina Stks Follow Regional Mkts Lower; Bonds Edge Higher
By Drew Benson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES(Dow Jones)--Argentine stocks floated lower Friday in line with regional markets, while locally traded bond prices edged higher.
The peso, meanwhile, firmed slightly to ARS3.1525 per dollar from Thursday's close at ARS3.1575.
The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange's benchmark Merval Index ended 0.13% lower at 2,039.09 points, while the broader General Index slid 0.19% to 116,026.88 points. Volume was ARS166.6 million, with a low ARS59.1 million of that comprising local shares traded.
Steel tube maker Tenaris (TS) saw the heaviest trading on the Merval, ending 0.73% lower at ARS60.45, while energy investment fund Pampa Holding (PAMP.BA) slid 1.31% to ARS2.25. On the upside, PVC maker Solvay Indupa (INDU.BA) jumped 3.39% to ARS4.87%, after reporting that fourth quarter net profit rose 54.8% on the year to ARS69.7 million.
In the local bond market, the price of the Discount bond in pesos rose to ARS117.50 from ARS117, while the Par in pesos rose to ARS41.35 from ARS41.
Traders expect little local activity Monday due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.
-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; andrew.benson@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 15:53 ET (20:53 GMT)
Companies' cash-like holdings pose risks
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:51 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
WASHINGTON (AP) - As corporate losses mount from investments that until recently seemed as safe as cash, shareholders are in a pickle: They don't know the severity of the problem or which companies are affected.
So far, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., US Airways Group Inc., Qwest Communications and others have disclosed multimillion-dollar losses on a common type of higher-yielding bonds marketed as short-term and low-risk.
Such descriptions for these investments, known as auction-rate securities, were at best wishful thinking in the era of easy credit that helped fuel the housing boom. But as credit tightens on Wall Street and around the globe, it has become extremely difficult for companies and wealthy individuals to sell these securities, which are backed by mortgages, student loans and municipal bonds.
"The problem is quite widespread," said Lance Pan, director of investment research at Capital Advisors Group Inc. in Newton, Mass. "There will be more confessions to be made by large corporate investors."
For years the securities were attractive to investors because they offered a slightly better return than ultra-safe investments such as Treasury bills at a time when interest rates were relatively low. Over the past week, however, there have been barely any buyers in the more than $300 billion market as investors have shied away from all but the safest places to put their money.
Since some of these investments are backed by troubled bond insurers, investors have been particularly queasy. Hundreds of auctions have failed over the past week, driving up the interest rates for securities that do get auctioned off. That makes it more expensive for municipalities to raise money through bond sales.
Investors' growing aversion to auction-rate securities doesn't mean the assets underlying them are worthless; but the companies that own the securities are increasingly under pressure to acknowledge in future financial statements that their value has dropped. Auction-rate securities can be held by mutual funds, but not money-market funds.
Wall Street's inability to attract investors for these securities is also a big problem for government agencies selling the debt, including student loan programs in Michigan and Montana, and the operator of airports, tunnels and ferries in New York and New Jersey.
After a failed auction on Tuesday, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey has had to temporarily pay interest rates of 10 percent or more while it looks for other ways to sell bonds to avoid these high interest costs.
Jeff Glenzer, a managing director of Association for Financial Professionals, a Bethesda, Md. based trade group for corporate financial officers, said the problems in the auction-rate market reinforce a time-honored saying: If something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
Alarms were sounded about risks in the auction-rate market long before the latest flare-up. The Securities and Exchange Commission in May 2006 fined 15 Wall Street firms $13 million to settle charges that they had manipulated the market.
Still, Robert Salomon, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, said many executives likely were unaware of what they were buying. "I would expect to see corporate treasurers raise the question of: well, what the heck is in our portfolio?" he said.
Companies are not required to break out the details of these investments and typically only do so if they go bad. That presents a puzzle for financial analysts trying to get a handle on the problem.
Merrill Lynch analyst Tai Liani in January published a report examining 190 technology companies for their exposure to risky short-term investments, and found that 44 had invested some of their cash in riskier assets. However, Liani noted in the report that limited disclosures "make it virtually impossible for us to assess the quality of the underlying assets."
Last fall, US Airways warned in an SEC filing that $411 million of its $3.13 billion in cash and short-term investments was tied up in auction-rate securities that did not find buyers in auctions. The company warned that -- if it needed the money -- it would have to sell the debt at below-cost and estimated the securities' value at $373 million. Last month, US Airways took a $10 million charge on the securities.
Pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb in late January reported a $275 million impairment charge due to auction-rate bonds that it said were linked to mortgage investments. Bristol-Myers' treasurer, Edward Dwyer, no longer works for the company, a company spokeswoman said, declining further comment.
And earlier this week, telephone company Qwest Communications said it classified $116 million in auction-rate securities as noncurrent because the company has been unable to sell its holdings.
Placing a value on bonds that are still making interest payments but for which there is no market is bound to be especially tricky, experts say. Auditors are likely to err on the side of caution.
Some in the industry fear auditors will push companies into taking larger-than-necessary write-downs.
"We're telling people to fight back," said Lee Epstein, chief executive of San Francisco-based Money Market One, which sells the securities.
Epstein also said he sees signs that the market is beginning to recover, as rates have risen to the point -- 10 to 11 percent -- where they are irresistible for investors.
Mexico's Peso Firms To 10.7525/Dlr As Ctrl Bank Holds Rates
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:44 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Mexico's Peso Firms To 10.7525/Dlr As Ctrl Bank Holds Rates
By Anthony Harrup
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexico's peso strengthened fractionally against the dollar Friday as the Bank of Mexico left interest rates unchanged at its monthly meeting.
The peso was quoted in Mexico City closing at MXN10.7525 to the dollar, compared with MXN10.7620 at the opening and MXN10.7585 at Thursday's close.
The currency remained firm despite a drop in local stocks, which were off 1.3% on renewed worries about U.S. eocnomic growth.
U.S. industrial production rose modestly last month, but regional manufacturing data and consumer confidence data were discouraging, contributing to U.S. stock losses.
Mexican government bonds gained ground, however, pushing yields down, after the central bank left its overnight rate target at 7.5%, as expected.
The Bank of Mexico said economic growth risks related to the U.S. slowdown had increased, and that food price pressures remain although inflation has so far behaved as expected.
The yield on government bonds due 2016 was off 2 basis points to 7.52%, and the yield on bonds maturing 20-24 was down 2 basis points to 7.63%.
Investors had taken profits in bonds in recent sessions following a rally on expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates this year.
Banamex said it found no evidence in Friday's statement to suggest the Bank of Mexico won't lower interest rates, saying it expects a first rate cut in September. Others expect the bank to start leasing monetary policy before then.
-By Anthony Harrup, Dow Jones Newswires; (5255) 5080 3450; anthony.harrup@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 15:44 ET (20:44 GMT)
Canada Afternoon: C$ Ends Sharply Lower In Thin Trading
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:44 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Canada Afternoon: C$ Ends Sharply Lower In Thin Trading
TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar ended sharply lower Friday after earlier selling of the U.S. dollar prompted a short squeeze that sent the greenback scurrying higher against its Canadian counterpart in thin trading conditions.
Weak domestic manufacturing data for December were also a negative for the Canadian unit Friday.
The U.S. dollar was trading at C$1.0086 at 3:39 p.m. EST (2039 GMT), from C$0.9989 at 8:00 a.m. EST (1300 GMT) and C$0.9994 late Thursday.
It slipped to a low of C$0.9924 in overnight trading but had rebounded to the C$0.9970 area when Statistics Canada reported that manufacturing shipments were down 3.4% to C$48.63 billion (US$48.62 billion) after rising 1% the previous month, revised down from the preliminary 1.1% gain.
The market had expected a 0.1% loss.
Sales in constant dollars fell 5.8% to C$46.7 billion, the lowest level since August 2003. Overall 16 of the 21 manufacturing industries posted lower sales, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total.
The U.S. dollar rallied back to the C$0.9995 area after the data, but then relinquished much of its gains to stabilize around C$0.9985.
However, in early afternoon trading it began a scramble higher that eventually took it to a sessional peak of C$1.0112 before it retreated somewhat.
Analysts said a short squeeze in the U.S. dollar in thin trading conditions was the main factor underlying Friday's turbulent trading.
"Basically, the market got squeezed a little bit. We tried to take out important support around C$0.9923 overnight and basically failed there," said George Davis, chief technical analyst for foreign exchange with RBC Capital Markets.
Around mid day, equity markets weakened and a U.S. dollar break above C$1.0024, that prompted an acceleration to the topside, he said.
"To be honest, I don't think there was much behind it. I think it was a little bit of stop loss buying and short covering, but liquidity was very, very thin," Davis said.
"At that point, I think most people were shutting down for the weekend here and south of the border," he said.
USD Rally Called A Little Bit Suspect
Foreign exchange trading in Canada will be sharply curtailed Monday for the newly instituted Family Day holiday in Ontario, while U.S. markets will be closed for Presidents Day. "It feels like the market was caught short (U.S.) dollars, today," said Steve Butler, director of foreign exchange at Scotia Capital.
He also said light, pre-holiday trading conditions contributed to the rapid move higher by the greenback.
Whether or not the U.S. dollar will be able to extend its gains when full trading reopens Tuesday isn't clear, but analysts said it's a distinct possibility.
"I don't know if I'd bet the farm that we're going to see a continuation, but it does feel like maybe we're headed back to C$1.0200, now," Butler said. "Just given the way things have gone today, I think the risk is as we move into early next week we'll see prices continue to rally and test the topside levels," Davis said.
"On the one hand, you can say this rally is a little bit suspect, given that it happened in almost-holiday markets and thin liquidity," he said.
But the move above C$1.0024 is significant and likely presages a move towards C$1.0119, a resistance point the U.S. dollar failed to break above last week, Davis said.
"If we get above there, we start looking at the C$1.0250 area," he added.
In other Canadian data, monthly new motor vehicle sales halted three months of declines in December and rebounded on strong truck sales.
Sales were up 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted 140,270 units, versus market expectations of a 3% increase.
While most market activity in Canada will be shut down on Monday because of the the Family Day holiday in Ontario, not all of the country is affected, and in Vancouver, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will speak on the topic of "The Implications of Globalization for the Economy and Public Policy" at 4:15 p.m. EST (2115 GMT).
The text of his speech will be released at 4:00 p.m. EST (2100 GMT).
It will be followed by a news conference at 5:15 p.m. EST (2215 GMT).
These are the exchange rates at 3:39 p.m. EST (2039 GMT), 8:00 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), and late Thursday.
USD/CAD 1.0086 0.9989 0.9994
EUR/CAD 1.4812 1.4640 1.4629
CAD/JPY 106.89 107.78 108.21
-By Don Curren; Dow Jones Newswires;416-306-2020; don.curren@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 15:44 ET (20:44 GMT)
CME Forex, Financial Estimated Futures Volumes - Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:37 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CME Forex, Financial Estimated Futures Volumes - Feb 15
For today, in contracts.
Currencies Financials
Euro 115,288 Eurodollar 1,969,381
Japanese yen 85,260 Libor 4,436
Swiss franc 44,360 Euroyen 1
British pound 58,895
Canadian dollar 44,502
Australian dollar 31,623
Mexican Peso 11,580
New Zealand dollar 1,683
South African Rand 195
Brazilian Real 0
Russian Rubble 1,220
-By Kathy Lang; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5172;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures/Options-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:36 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures/Options-Feb 15
Mexican Peso - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Option And Futures Combined Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Mxn 500,000) Open Interest: 152,020
Commitments
111,054 5,026 659 34,044 144,244 145,757 149,929 6,263 2,091
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 30,895)
31,932 -2,034 -381 948 34,974 32,499 32,559 -1,603 -1,664
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Trader
73.1 3.3 0.4 22.4 94.9 95.9 98.6 4.1 1.4
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 107)
64 16 3 10 20 77 37
-By Kathy Lang; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5172;
csstat@dowjones.com
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 23:51 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) - The following are key metals settlement prices Friday, compared with late Thursday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange:
April gold $906.10, down $4.70 an ounce
March silver $17.118, down 13.7 cents an ounce
March copper $3.5230, up 3.5 cents a pound
Treasurys higher on weak manufacturing
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 22:58 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) - Long-term Treasury prices rose Friday after the New York Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing in its region contracted this month. Another gauge showed that nationwide consumer confidence skidded to a 16-year low.
The news sent the yield on the rate-sensitive two year note briefly down to its weakest level in four years. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The New York Fed's Empire State index of factory activity plunged almost 21 points to a negative 11.7 reading, the weakest level in almost three years. Readings below zero show shrinkage. February also marked the fourth straight decline for the index. Economists had expected a much healthier reading of 5.75, according to Thomson/IFR.
The report helps build a case that the economy is on the brink of recession, although a recession requires two consecutive quarters of contraction and can only be declared in hindsight.
Separately, the Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 69.6 this month, its worst level since 1992 and down sharply from 78.4 in January. Although the news triggered a strong reaction in the bond market, some economists caution that consumer cash flow is a more tangible metric than sentiment readings.
Although the data has negative portents for the economy, it is helpful to the Treasury market, as investors generally turn to government-backed bonds when they are worried about the economy.
In addition, the report puts extra pressure on the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. The central bank cut the overnight Fed funds rate by 1.25 percentage points in January. Fixed-income investors want to see more rate cuts to rejuvenate ailing debt markets.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 9/32 to 97 24/32 with a yield of 3.77 percent, down from 3.82 percent late Thursday, according to BGCantor Market Data.
The 30-year long bond gained 25/32 to 96 24/32 with a yield of 4.58 percent, down from 4.65 percent the day before.
However, there was some selling pressure on short-term notes.
The 2-year note fell 3/32 to 100 12/32 with a 1.92 percent yield, up from 1.90 percent late Thursday. Immediately after the sentiment report the 2-year yield touched 1.82 percent, its worst level since 2004.
After hours trade had no impact on yields. At 5:30 p.m. Eastern the 10-year yield remained 3.77 percent, the 30-year yield was still 4.58 percent and the 2-year yield stood at 1.92 percent.
The yield on the 3-month note fell to 2.21 percent from 2.27 percent on Thursday, as the discount rate dropped to 2.16 percent from 2.24 percent.
In other data news, the Fed said industrial output rose modestly last month, due to strength in the utility sector. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in January, in line with December's rise and analysts' expectations.
Separately, the Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 1.7 percent in January, as oil prices jumped. In December, prices slipped 0.2 percent.
Demand for Treasurys Thursday also was stoked by a complex barrage of negative developments elsewhere in the credit markets. Since the subprime issue first surfaced last summer, Treasurys have been the asset of choice for investors spooked by the unraveling of normally stalwart forms of debt assets.
This week saw turmoil in the market for short-term auction-rate munis when bidders could not be found for weekly notes offered by a number of top-rated local government issuers. There also are mounting problems in the leveraged loan market, as well as some ongoing weakness in corporate short-term commercial paper.
"In 25 years of working in this business, I don't believe I have seen more market disruption from so many different sources," said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed-income trading at Morgan Keegan.
The unusual degree of queasiness about debt issued by highly reliable companies and municipalities is linked to worries about bond insurers that unwisely backed subprime debt. There are concerns that they may not be able to shore up enough capital to withstand an expected avalanche of defaults.
One of the wobbly bond insurers, FGIC Co., agreed to be split into two separate entities. One would house its structured finance business where its troubled subprime assets are sheltered. The other would contain the municipal bonds that FGIC backs which normally are considered desirable.
Bear market looms, but will it linger?
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 22:00 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) - Bear markets are a bit like recessions: Investors don't know they're in one until it's almost over. But they can feel the pain.
Although a bear market can't be officially declared yet, traders are certainly pessimistic. The Standard & Poor's 500 index posted another lackluster week as Wall Street's three main stock gauges hovered at their lowest levels of the year.
The four-year bull run had catapulted equities markets to all-time highs, with the Dow Jones industrial average smashing through the 14,000 mark in October. A growing number of analysts believe a bear market is now under way, but that doesn't mean shrewd investors can't make money.
"I do think we are going to end up being in a bear market because the problems with financial stocks are continuing to drag out," said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist for New York-based Meridian Equity Partners. "Money will flow from one thing to the next, one week investors will go bottom-fishing and then they'll sell off on bad news."
Dunay said "it is all about the fast money" these days as big institutional investors -- such as hedge funds -- lay down bets and cash out quick. That offers some explanation for how stocks have behaved during the past three weeks -- and clues about what to expect.
This past week, major indexes finished slightly higher. The previous week, the indexes gave up more than 4 percent; and, before that, two days of stunning gains were enough to give the Dow its first weekly advance of 2008.
Behind these gyrations are fears that the economy continues to slow, and is even sinking into recession. Analysts are worried that the subprime crisis that roiled markets since the summer are working their way deeper into the economy.
Banks have racked up about $150 billion in write-offs from bad bets on asset-backed securities. And there's continued evidence the pain is spreading: This past week bond insurer Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. said it wanted to separate into two companies, splitting its municipal bond business from its insurance on riskier financial instruments.
Meanwhile, recent data indicates that consumer spending -- the biggest driver of the U.S. economy -- is slowing. The full effects of this would be widespread, hurting everything from profit at retailers to employment.
All of that could easily tip major market indexes into the technical definition of a bear market, which is when stocks are down 20 percent from a recent high. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite are all on the verge of hitting that mark.
The S&P 500, considered the broadest market indicator, was down 13.75 percent from its Oct. 9 high as of Friday. The Dow was down 12.82 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was off 18.79 percent, both from their October highs.
However, experts warn that the bear market label might give investors a false impression that they're locked into losses.
"There's an old adage that fortunes are made in bear markets, but you just don't know it at the time," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "There are trading opportunities because there are some strong spikes. ... Emblematic of a bear market is that you sell into strength and buy on the dip."
Krosby said that investors should look for solid companies that are "beaten down for no apparent reason" that will provide long-term opportunity. Even more specifically, she said, at some point, financial companies like banks and brokerages will truly be the sector to watch.
Investment banks like Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. have plunged in the past year on credit concerns. This past week analysts who cover the financial sector warned that even Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- which has so far escaped the brunt of the crisis -- will begin to show strain when it reports first-quarter results next month.
Dunay agrees that the financial sector will be a crucial one for a turnaround. In the meantime, he said there are different strategies short-term and long-term investors should take.
"The idea is if you're longer term, the investing style will be to preserve your capital," he said. "For short-term traders, you're just waiting around for the next big wave."
Nebraska home sales fall
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 21:41 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - Sales of existing homes dropped last year in Nebraska, but the figures still painted a brighter picture than national trends.
The latest figures from the National Association of Realtors show that Nebraska sales of used single-family homes, town homes, condos and co-ops plummeted 17.6 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007 and 4.9 percent for the year.
That compares favorably with national sales figures: a plunge of 20.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 12.8 percent for the year, compared with 2006 figures.
Sales of existing homes fell in 45 states during the October-December quarter, the association said.
Nebraska's figures also were not as bad as those for the Midwest as a whole.
Midwest sales dropped 18.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 10.6 percent for the year.
The figures reflect adjusted annual rates, not actual sales records, in order to factor out season variations for resales. The association said the rate for any quarter "represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters."
Prices are another measure of the housing industry's well-being, suggesting good news for Omaha and Lincoln.
Lincoln's median price for the quarter rose to $138,800 from $137,700, an increase of 0.7 percent. Omaha's rose 2.1 percent, to $142,800 from $136,200.
Median home prices fell in more than half of the 150 metropolitan areas surveyed by the association.
Walter Molony, a spokesman for National Association of Realtors, said the two regions' "price performance would indicate a little bit better balance between buyers and sellers" than many other parts of the country, where buyers are having their financial way with sellers.
Doug Rotthaus, executive vice president of Realtors Association of Lincoln, said he thinks the relatively good numbers relate "to the overall stability of the market."
"We have a history of slower growth but more steady growth," Rotthaus said. "Our numbers indicate that we didn't go up as rapidly, but we're not seeing that correction in the overall proportion as some areas of the country."
In fact, more existing homes were sold in Lincoln last year, 2,922, than in 2006, 2,874. The record was 3,030 in 2005, Rotthaus said.
"The demand for existing homes is somewhat steady," he said, but there are more homes on the market than usual. The latest figure he had 2,083 on Dec. 31, which was about 1.5 percent more single-family homes, including new ones, than the same date a year earlier.
He also said Lincoln had fewer new home starts last year: 843 permits issued in 2007, versus 1,021 in 2006.
Molony with the national realtors group said the states and metropolitan areas that are doing better are the ones "that preserve good affordability conditions."
Lawrence Yun, the Realtors Association's chief economist, said the healthiest housing markets "generally are moderately priced and are experiencing job growth."
Nebraska has long been among the most affordable states for housing. A 2006 U.S. Census report listed Nebraska No. 39 for the median price of owner-occupied housing units, $119,200, versus the U.S. median of $185,200 and No. 1 California, at $535,700.
The Nebraska unemployment rate remains low as well: 3.2 percent in December, compared with 5 percent nationally.
The state Labor Department says Nebraska has added 13,571 jobs since December 2006, a growth rate of 1.4 percent.
Dollar down after weak manufacturing
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 21:18 GMT
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NEW YORK (AP) - The dollar extended its slide Friday against most major currencies after weak manufacturing data and consumer sentiment drove home Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments about a gloomy economy and the possibility of further interest rate cuts.
Lower interest rates can jump-start a country's economy, but may weigh on its currency as traders transfer funds to countries where they can earn higher returns.
The 15-nation euro rose to $1.4678 Friday from $1.4633, but the dollar jumped higher against the pound. The British currency fell to $1.9603 from $1.9691.
The dollar also slipped to 107.69 Japanese yen from 107.93 yen and dropped to 1.0925 Swiss francs from 1.0973 francs.
A New York Federal Reserve survey showed that manufacturing conditions in the region had deteriorated, while the central bank said that the country's industrial output rose by only 0.1 percent in January. The increase in industrial production was due mostly to higher output at utility companies because of the weather.
A preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence sank in February to a 16-year low.
Bernanke told Congress on Thursday the economy outlook was gloomy and signaled a readiness to keep on lowering a key interest rate to shore things up.
Bernanke also told the Senate Banking Committee that the one-two punch of housing and credit crises has greatly strained the economy. And he forecast sluggish growth in the near term. Bernanke also noted that hiring has slowed and that people are likely to tighten their belts further because of high energy prices and plummeting home values.
In other New York trading, the dollar rose to 1.0091 Canadian dollars from 99.99 Canadian cents.
New York Money Market Rate Indications
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 21:02 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
New York Money Market Rate Indications
Bankers acceptances at 3:46 p.m. New York time.
1M 3.12
2M 3.10
3M 3.70
6M 2.95
9M 2.88
1Y 2.83
Federal funds: days high 3.15; low 2.93: latest bid 3.00; offered 3.06; prime lending rate at major banks 6.00; broker call loan rate 4.75
Dealer-placed commercial paper
30 days 3.07
60 days 3.05
90 days 3.03
Treasury bills
30 days 2.33-32 dn .120
90 days 2.15-14 dn .080
180 days 2.02-01 dn .020
Moody's yield figures
AAA corps 5.67
Argentina Stks Follow Regional Mkts Lower; Bonds Edge Higher
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:53 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Argentina Stks Follow Regional Mkts Lower; Bonds Edge Higher
By Drew Benson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES(Dow Jones)--Argentine stocks floated lower Friday in line with regional markets, while locally traded bond prices edged higher.
The peso, meanwhile, firmed slightly to ARS3.1525 per dollar from Thursday's close at ARS3.1575.
The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange's benchmark Merval Index ended 0.13% lower at 2,039.09 points, while the broader General Index slid 0.19% to 116,026.88 points. Volume was ARS166.6 million, with a low ARS59.1 million of that comprising local shares traded.
Steel tube maker Tenaris (TS) saw the heaviest trading on the Merval, ending 0.73% lower at ARS60.45, while energy investment fund Pampa Holding (PAMP.BA) slid 1.31% to ARS2.25. On the upside, PVC maker Solvay Indupa (INDU.BA) jumped 3.39% to ARS4.87%, after reporting that fourth quarter net profit rose 54.8% on the year to ARS69.7 million.
In the local bond market, the price of the Discount bond in pesos rose to ARS117.50 from ARS117, while the Par in pesos rose to ARS41.35 from ARS41.
Traders expect little local activity Monday due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.
-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; andrew.benson@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 15:53 ET (20:53 GMT)
Companies' cash-like holdings pose risks
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:51 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
WASHINGTON (AP) - As corporate losses mount from investments that until recently seemed as safe as cash, shareholders are in a pickle: They don't know the severity of the problem or which companies are affected.
So far, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., US Airways Group Inc., Qwest Communications and others have disclosed multimillion-dollar losses on a common type of higher-yielding bonds marketed as short-term and low-risk.
Such descriptions for these investments, known as auction-rate securities, were at best wishful thinking in the era of easy credit that helped fuel the housing boom. But as credit tightens on Wall Street and around the globe, it has become extremely difficult for companies and wealthy individuals to sell these securities, which are backed by mortgages, student loans and municipal bonds.
"The problem is quite widespread," said Lance Pan, director of investment research at Capital Advisors Group Inc. in Newton, Mass. "There will be more confessions to be made by large corporate investors."
For years the securities were attractive to investors because they offered a slightly better return than ultra-safe investments such as Treasury bills at a time when interest rates were relatively low. Over the past week, however, there have been barely any buyers in the more than $300 billion market as investors have shied away from all but the safest places to put their money.
Since some of these investments are backed by troubled bond insurers, investors have been particularly queasy. Hundreds of auctions have failed over the past week, driving up the interest rates for securities that do get auctioned off. That makes it more expensive for municipalities to raise money through bond sales.
Investors' growing aversion to auction-rate securities doesn't mean the assets underlying them are worthless; but the companies that own the securities are increasingly under pressure to acknowledge in future financial statements that their value has dropped. Auction-rate securities can be held by mutual funds, but not money-market funds.
Wall Street's inability to attract investors for these securities is also a big problem for government agencies selling the debt, including student loan programs in Michigan and Montana, and the operator of airports, tunnels and ferries in New York and New Jersey.
After a failed auction on Tuesday, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey has had to temporarily pay interest rates of 10 percent or more while it looks for other ways to sell bonds to avoid these high interest costs.
Jeff Glenzer, a managing director of Association for Financial Professionals, a Bethesda, Md. based trade group for corporate financial officers, said the problems in the auction-rate market reinforce a time-honored saying: If something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
Alarms were sounded about risks in the auction-rate market long before the latest flare-up. The Securities and Exchange Commission in May 2006 fined 15 Wall Street firms $13 million to settle charges that they had manipulated the market.
Still, Robert Salomon, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, said many executives likely were unaware of what they were buying. "I would expect to see corporate treasurers raise the question of: well, what the heck is in our portfolio?" he said.
Companies are not required to break out the details of these investments and typically only do so if they go bad. That presents a puzzle for financial analysts trying to get a handle on the problem.
Merrill Lynch analyst Tai Liani in January published a report examining 190 technology companies for their exposure to risky short-term investments, and found that 44 had invested some of their cash in riskier assets. However, Liani noted in the report that limited disclosures "make it virtually impossible for us to assess the quality of the underlying assets."
Last fall, US Airways warned in an SEC filing that $411 million of its $3.13 billion in cash and short-term investments was tied up in auction-rate securities that did not find buyers in auctions. The company warned that -- if it needed the money -- it would have to sell the debt at below-cost and estimated the securities' value at $373 million. Last month, US Airways took a $10 million charge on the securities.
Pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb in late January reported a $275 million impairment charge due to auction-rate bonds that it said were linked to mortgage investments. Bristol-Myers' treasurer, Edward Dwyer, no longer works for the company, a company spokeswoman said, declining further comment.
And earlier this week, telephone company Qwest Communications said it classified $116 million in auction-rate securities as noncurrent because the company has been unable to sell its holdings.
Placing a value on bonds that are still making interest payments but for which there is no market is bound to be especially tricky, experts say. Auditors are likely to err on the side of caution.
Some in the industry fear auditors will push companies into taking larger-than-necessary write-downs.
"We're telling people to fight back," said Lee Epstein, chief executive of San Francisco-based Money Market One, which sells the securities.
Epstein also said he sees signs that the market is beginning to recover, as rates have risen to the point -- 10 to 11 percent -- where they are irresistible for investors.
Mexico's Peso Firms To 10.7525/Dlr As Ctrl Bank Holds Rates
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:44 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Mexico's Peso Firms To 10.7525/Dlr As Ctrl Bank Holds Rates
By Anthony Harrup
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexico's peso strengthened fractionally against the dollar Friday as the Bank of Mexico left interest rates unchanged at its monthly meeting.
The peso was quoted in Mexico City closing at MXN10.7525 to the dollar, compared with MXN10.7620 at the opening and MXN10.7585 at Thursday's close.
The currency remained firm despite a drop in local stocks, which were off 1.3% on renewed worries about U.S. eocnomic growth.
U.S. industrial production rose modestly last month, but regional manufacturing data and consumer confidence data were discouraging, contributing to U.S. stock losses.
Mexican government bonds gained ground, however, pushing yields down, after the central bank left its overnight rate target at 7.5%, as expected.
The Bank of Mexico said economic growth risks related to the U.S. slowdown had increased, and that food price pressures remain although inflation has so far behaved as expected.
The yield on government bonds due 2016 was off 2 basis points to 7.52%, and the yield on bonds maturing 20-24 was down 2 basis points to 7.63%.
Investors had taken profits in bonds in recent sessions following a rally on expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates this year.
Banamex said it found no evidence in Friday's statement to suggest the Bank of Mexico won't lower interest rates, saying it expects a first rate cut in September. Others expect the bank to start leasing monetary policy before then.
-By Anthony Harrup, Dow Jones Newswires; (5255) 5080 3450; anthony.harrup@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 15:44 ET (20:44 GMT)
Canada Afternoon: C$ Ends Sharply Lower In Thin Trading
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:44 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Canada Afternoon: C$ Ends Sharply Lower In Thin Trading
TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar ended sharply lower Friday after earlier selling of the U.S. dollar prompted a short squeeze that sent the greenback scurrying higher against its Canadian counterpart in thin trading conditions.
Weak domestic manufacturing data for December were also a negative for the Canadian unit Friday.
The U.S. dollar was trading at C$1.0086 at 3:39 p.m. EST (2039 GMT), from C$0.9989 at 8:00 a.m. EST (1300 GMT) and C$0.9994 late Thursday.
It slipped to a low of C$0.9924 in overnight trading but had rebounded to the C$0.9970 area when Statistics Canada reported that manufacturing shipments were down 3.4% to C$48.63 billion (US$48.62 billion) after rising 1% the previous month, revised down from the preliminary 1.1% gain.
The market had expected a 0.1% loss.
Sales in constant dollars fell 5.8% to C$46.7 billion, the lowest level since August 2003. Overall 16 of the 21 manufacturing industries posted lower sales, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total.
The U.S. dollar rallied back to the C$0.9995 area after the data, but then relinquished much of its gains to stabilize around C$0.9985.
However, in early afternoon trading it began a scramble higher that eventually took it to a sessional peak of C$1.0112 before it retreated somewhat.
Analysts said a short squeeze in the U.S. dollar in thin trading conditions was the main factor underlying Friday's turbulent trading.
"Basically, the market got squeezed a little bit. We tried to take out important support around C$0.9923 overnight and basically failed there," said George Davis, chief technical analyst for foreign exchange with RBC Capital Markets.
Around mid day, equity markets weakened and a U.S. dollar break above C$1.0024, that prompted an acceleration to the topside, he said.
"To be honest, I don't think there was much behind it. I think it was a little bit of stop loss buying and short covering, but liquidity was very, very thin," Davis said.
"At that point, I think most people were shutting down for the weekend here and south of the border," he said.
USD Rally Called A Little Bit Suspect
Foreign exchange trading in Canada will be sharply curtailed Monday for the newly instituted Family Day holiday in Ontario, while U.S. markets will be closed for Presidents Day. "It feels like the market was caught short (U.S.) dollars, today," said Steve Butler, director of foreign exchange at Scotia Capital.
He also said light, pre-holiday trading conditions contributed to the rapid move higher by the greenback.
Whether or not the U.S. dollar will be able to extend its gains when full trading reopens Tuesday isn't clear, but analysts said it's a distinct possibility.
"I don't know if I'd bet the farm that we're going to see a continuation, but it does feel like maybe we're headed back to C$1.0200, now," Butler said. "Just given the way things have gone today, I think the risk is as we move into early next week we'll see prices continue to rally and test the topside levels," Davis said.
"On the one hand, you can say this rally is a little bit suspect, given that it happened in almost-holiday markets and thin liquidity," he said.
But the move above C$1.0024 is significant and likely presages a move towards C$1.0119, a resistance point the U.S. dollar failed to break above last week, Davis said.
"If we get above there, we start looking at the C$1.0250 area," he added.
In other Canadian data, monthly new motor vehicle sales halted three months of declines in December and rebounded on strong truck sales.
Sales were up 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted 140,270 units, versus market expectations of a 3% increase.
While most market activity in Canada will be shut down on Monday because of the the Family Day holiday in Ontario, not all of the country is affected, and in Vancouver, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will speak on the topic of "The Implications of Globalization for the Economy and Public Policy" at 4:15 p.m. EST (2115 GMT).
The text of his speech will be released at 4:00 p.m. EST (2100 GMT).
It will be followed by a news conference at 5:15 p.m. EST (2215 GMT).
These are the exchange rates at 3:39 p.m. EST (2039 GMT), 8:00 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), and late Thursday.
USD/CAD 1.0086 0.9989 0.9994
EUR/CAD 1.4812 1.4640 1.4629
CAD/JPY 106.89 107.78 108.21
-By Don Curren; Dow Jones Newswires;416-306-2020; don.curren@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 15:44 ET (20:44 GMT)
CME Forex, Financial Estimated Futures Volumes - Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:37 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CME Forex, Financial Estimated Futures Volumes - Feb 15
For today, in contracts.
Currencies Financials
Euro 115,288 Eurodollar 1,969,381
Japanese yen 85,260 Libor 4,436
Swiss franc 44,360 Euroyen 1
British pound 58,895
Canadian dollar 44,502
Australian dollar 31,623
Mexican Peso 11,580
New Zealand dollar 1,683
South African Rand 195
Brazilian Real 0
Russian Rubble 1,220
-By Kathy Lang; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5172;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures/Options-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:36 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures/Options-Feb 15
Mexican Peso - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Option And Futures Combined Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Mxn 500,000) Open Interest: 152,020
Commitments
111,054 5,026 659 34,044 144,244 145,757 149,929 6,263 2,091
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 30,895)
31,932 -2,034 -381 948 34,974 32,499 32,559 -1,603 -1,664
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Trader
73.1 3.3 0.4 22.4 94.9 95.9 98.6 4.1 1.4
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 107)
64 16 3 10 20 77 37
-By Kathy Lang; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5172;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: ICE US Dlr Index Futures - Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:32 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: ICE US Dlr Index Futures - Feb 15
U.S. Dollar Index - Ice Futures U.S.
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(U.S. Dollar Index X $1000) Open Interest: 36,980
Commitments
5,347 9,377 2,133 25,894 21,536 33,374 33,046 3,606 3,934
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: -6,762)
-2,017 -6,433 -38 -4,446 145 -6,501 -6,326 -261 -436
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
14.5 25.4 5.8 70.0 58.2 90.2 89.4 9.8 10.6
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 59)
18 26 5 9 6 30 35
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Canadian Dollar Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Canadian Dollar Futures-Feb 15
Canadian Dollar - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Cad 100,000) Open Interest: 101,187
Commitments
43,391 22,956 1,639 22,399 60,784 67,429 85,379 33,758 15,808
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 7,613)
12,788 2,593 -137 -9,637 6,015 3,014 8,471 4,599 -858
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
42.9 22.7 1.6 22.1 60.1 66.6 84.4 33.4 15.6
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 73)
25 15 4 18 22 47 37
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Swiss Franc Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Swiss Franc Futures-Feb 15
Swiss Franc - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Chf 125,000) Open Interest: 57,989
Commitments
17,550 14,370 11 18,023 35,696 35,584 50,077 22,405 7,912
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: -6,364)
-5,038 -5,432 0 -1,149 329 -6,187 -5,103 -177 -1,261
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
30.3 24.8 0.0 31.1 61.6 61.4 86.4 38.6 13.6
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 43)
16 9 1 11 12 28 21
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures-Feb 15
Mexican Peso - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Mxn 500,000) Open Interest: 152,013
Commitments
111,054 5,032 653 34,044 144,244 145,751 149,929 6,262 2,084
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 30,897)
31,932 -2,035 -380 948 34,974 32,500 32,559 -1,603 -1,662
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
73.1 3.3 0.4 22.4 94.9 95.9 98.6 4.1 1.4
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 107)
64 16 3 10 20 77 37
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME British Pound Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME British Pound Futures-Feb 15
British Pound Sterling - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Gbp 62,500) Open Interest: 96,936
Commitments
26,593 40,526 1,546 51,048 28,609 79,187 70,681 17,749 26,255
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 3,320)
-4,164 1,960 -242 6,668 -430 2,262 1,288 1,058 2,032
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
27.4 41.8 1.6 52.7 29.5 81.7 72.9 18.3 27.1
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 77)
15 32 4 22 17 39 51
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Japanese Yen Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Japanese Yen Futures-Feb 15
Japanese Yen - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Jpy 12,500,000) Open Interest: 231,216
Commitments
73,955 30,484 1,091 120,344 175,817 195,390 207,392 35,826 23,824
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 5,926)
-9,785 1,434 -226 15,465 654 5,454 1,862 472 4,064
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
32.0 13.2 0.5 52.0 76.0 84.5 89.7 15.5 10.3
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 111)
39 28 10 28 27 72 60
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Euro FX Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Euro FX Futures-Feb 15
Euro Fx - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Eur 125,000) Open Interest: 207,601
Commitments
55,016 44,721 2,025 103,545 118,882 160,586 165,628 47,015 41,973
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 8,107)
-5,090 -2,821 -88 17,032 9,503 11,854 6,594 -3,747 1,513
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
26.5 21.5 1.0 49.9 57.3 77.4 79.8 22.6 20.2
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 124)
37 42 10 31 30 74 76
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:32 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: ICE US Dlr Index Futures - Feb 15
U.S. Dollar Index - Ice Futures U.S.
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(U.S. Dollar Index X $1000) Open Interest: 36,980
Commitments
5,347 9,377 2,133 25,894 21,536 33,374 33,046 3,606 3,934
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: -6,762)
-2,017 -6,433 -38 -4,446 145 -6,501 -6,326 -261 -436
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
14.5 25.4 5.8 70.0 58.2 90.2 89.4 9.8 10.6
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 59)
18 26 5 9 6 30 35
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Canadian Dollar Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Canadian Dollar Futures-Feb 15
Canadian Dollar - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Cad 100,000) Open Interest: 101,187
Commitments
43,391 22,956 1,639 22,399 60,784 67,429 85,379 33,758 15,808
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 7,613)
12,788 2,593 -137 -9,637 6,015 3,014 8,471 4,599 -858
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
42.9 22.7 1.6 22.1 60.1 66.6 84.4 33.4 15.6
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 73)
25 15 4 18 22 47 37
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Swiss Franc Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Swiss Franc Futures-Feb 15
Swiss Franc - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Chf 125,000) Open Interest: 57,989
Commitments
17,550 14,370 11 18,023 35,696 35,584 50,077 22,405 7,912
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: -6,364)
-5,038 -5,432 0 -1,149 329 -6,187 -5,103 -177 -1,261
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
30.3 24.8 0.0 31.1 61.6 61.4 86.4 38.6 13.6
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 43)
16 9 1 11 12 28 21
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Mexican Peso Futures-Feb 15
Mexican Peso - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Mxn 500,000) Open Interest: 152,013
Commitments
111,054 5,032 653 34,044 144,244 145,751 149,929 6,262 2,084
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 30,897)
31,932 -2,035 -380 948 34,974 32,500 32,559 -1,603 -1,662
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
73.1 3.3 0.4 22.4 94.9 95.9 98.6 4.1 1.4
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 107)
64 16 3 10 20 77 37
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME British Pound Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME British Pound Futures-Feb 15
British Pound Sterling - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Gbp 62,500) Open Interest: 96,936
Commitments
26,593 40,526 1,546 51,048 28,609 79,187 70,681 17,749 26,255
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 3,320)
-4,164 1,960 -242 6,668 -430 2,262 1,288 1,058 2,032
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
27.4 41.8 1.6 52.7 29.5 81.7 72.9 18.3 27.1
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 77)
15 32 4 22 17 39 51
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Japanese Yen Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Japanese Yen Futures-Feb 15
Japanese Yen - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Jpy 12,500,000) Open Interest: 231,216
Commitments
73,955 30,484 1,091 120,344 175,817 195,390 207,392 35,826 23,824
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 5,926)
-9,785 1,434 -226 15,465 654 5,454 1,862 472 4,064
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
32.0 13.2 0.5 52.0 76.0 84.5 89.7 15.5 10.3
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 111)
39 28 10 28 27 72 60
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
CFTC Commitments: CME Euro FX Futures-Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 20:30 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CFTC Commitments: CME Euro FX Futures-Feb 15
Euro Fx - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Futures Only Positions As Of 02/12/08 |
==============================================================| Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
==========================|=================|=================|================
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
===============================================================================
(Contracts Of Eur 125,000) Open Interest: 207,601
Commitments
55,016 44,721 2,025 103,545 118,882 160,586 165,628 47,015 41,973
Changes From 02/05/08 (Change In Open Interest: 8,107)
-5,090 -2,821 -88 17,032 9,503 11,854 6,594 -3,747 1,513
Percent Of Open Interest For Each Category Of Traders
26.5 21.5 1.0 49.9 57.3 77.4 79.8 22.6 20.2
Number Of Traders In Each Category (Total Traders: 124)
37 42 10 31 30 74 76
-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com
FOREXFC FOREX NEWS COLLECTIONS
CME/IMM Financials Volume And Open Interest - Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:17 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CME/IMM Financials Volume And Open Interest - Feb 15
Data for previous business day.
Volume Open Int Change
Libor One Month
QEM G8 565 18,147 -152
QEM H8 621 11,509 198
QEM J8 1 7,895 -1
QEM K8 0 3,983 0
QEM M8 0 1,981 0
QEM N8 0 1,390 0
QEM Q8 0 1,102 0
QEM U8 0 740 0
QEM V8 0 210 0
QEM X8 0 200 0
QEM Z8 0 120 0
Total 1,187 47,277 45
Eurodollar 3 Month Pit Only
QED G8 14,565 110,862 -6,540
QED H8 271,682 1,780,370 -40,546
QED J8 373 4,316 300
QED K8 0 405 0
QED M8 399,276 1,872,969 21,574
QED U8 569,966 1,419,043 -31,885
QED Z8 461,112 1,411,361 -15,680
QED H9 452,290 1,070,668 -10,629
QED M9 339,656 818,231 -2,106
QED U9 298,124 753,346 -1,674
QED Z9 230,642 525,337 19,912
QED H0 94,550 278,403 9,505
QED M0 95,029 259,005 -8,521
QED U0 49,336 204,497 3,223
QED Z0 32,210 157,354 1,191
QED H1 18,751 103,487 556
QED M1 10,164 107,117 -63
QED U1 8,837 71,405 640
QED Z1 8,834 72,348 626
QED H2 5,993 61,010 -631
QED M2 5,061 59,825 1,034
QED U2 4,721 46,494 -996
QED Z2 3,749 27,253 -1,070
QED H3 1,195 13,494 964
QED M3 254 8,567 177
QED U3 525 8,980 -250
QED Z3 383 9,945 147
QED H4 209 13,377 -203
QED M4 7 7,431 1
QED U4 7 3,902 4
QED Z4 108 3,256 -20
QED H5 3 1,377 3
QED M5 3 802 3
QED U5 3 2,904 3
QED Z5 3 1,190 3
QED H6 3 2,180 3
QED M6 3 1,933 0
QED U6 3 958 3
QED Z6 3 1,142 0
QED H7 3 1,044 0
QED M7 3 473 0
QED U7 3 315 0
QED Z7 3 239 0
Total 3,377,665 11,298,615 -60,962
Euroyen 3 Month Libor
EL H8 0 0 0
EL M8 0 0 0
EL U8 0 0 0
EL Z8 0 0 0
EL H9 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0
Euroyen
EY H8 16 11,215 13
EY M8 205 7,474 23
EY U8 200 6,784 196
EY Z8 100 2,399 100
EY H9 9 1,266 9
EY M9 9 165 9
EY U9 0 350 0
Total 539 29,653 350
Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index
NK H8 15,605 81,801 -1,695
NK M8 1 17 1
NK U8 0 13 0
NK Z8 0 1 0
Total 15,606 81,832 -1,694
-By Rose Ridinger; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5174;
csstat@dowjones.com
EU's Almunia: Eurozone 4Q GDP Slows As Expected
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:12 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
EU's Almunia: Eurozone 4Q GDP Slows As Expected
BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--Euro-zone gross domestic product is slowing as expected, the European Union Commissioner for Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia said Friday.
Euro-zone economic growth halved in the fourth quarter, in the three months to December, to 0.4%, from the 0.8% growth rate recorded in the third quarter, data from European statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday.
Almunia said these numbers are mostly in line with the commission's expectations.
"You can't ignore the deceleration of growth," he told a conference at the Belgian National Bank.
The commission will publish its own economic forecasts Feb. 21.
-By Adam Cohen, Dow Jones Newswires; +32-2-741-1486; adam.cohen@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 08:12 ET (13:12 GMT)
DATA SNAP: Polish Jan CPI Rises To 4.3%, Above 4.1% Forecast
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:11 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
DATA SNAP: Polish Jan CPI Rises To 4.3%, Above 4.1% Forecast
By Malgorzata Halaba
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
=======================================================
January Consumer Price Index ! !
Jan Dec ! Consensus: YY +4.1% !
Month +0.8% +0.3% ! !
Year +4.3% +4.0% ! Actual: YY +4.3% !
=======================================================
WARSAW (Dow Jones)--Poland's annual inflation rate rose more than expected to 4.3% in January from 4.0% in December, according to figures released Friday by the Central Statistical Office, or GUS.
On the month, January consumer prices rose 0.8%, compared with a 0.3% rise in December, GUS said. The figures are preliminary.
The headline annual inflation rate was above the average forecast of 4.1% in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 10 bank economists and a 4.0% preliminary estimate from the finance ministry. It remains well above the upper limit of the central bank's 1.5%-3.5% tolerance band.
The result confirms that global food and commodity prices continue to lift Poland's inflation rate, already pressured by rising wages and demand, increasing the likelihood of another central bank rate hike in the first quarter.
Statistical Office Web site: http://www.stat.gov.pl
-By Malgorzata Halaba, Dow Jones Newswires; +48-22-622-2766; malgorzata.halaba@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 08:11 ET (13:11 GMT)
Metals - Aluminium builds on gains as supply issues threaten to tighten market
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:07 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Aluminium extended gains in early afternoon trade amid fears supply constraints in South Africa and China could cause stocks to tighten.
Aluminium closed 4.5 pct firmer yesterday, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, amid reports that South African power utility Eskom, which has been plagued with generating problems in recent months, was considering buying back electricity from three aluminium smelters in southern Africa.
Eskom also said power cuts to mines and smelters would last until 2012, when new electricity stations come on line, further crimping supply.
South Africa is the world's eighth largest producer of aluminium. Mines are currently receiving only around 90 pct of their usual electricity supply, and generating problems are likely to continue in the medium term.
Meanwhile production outages linked to bad weather in the world's largest aluminium producer, China, will further pressure supply. Analysts said a power outage there caused by snow could lead to a loss of 650,000 tonnes of aluminium output.
Analysts at Barclays Capital said they are raising their one-month price target for aluminium to 3,000 usd a tonne.
"As well as losses in China, there have also been production reductions in Latin America and Tajikistan, and South African losses could be much higher than we had previously expected," they said.
"If industrial users are asked to maintain the 10 pct reduction in electricity demand for the rest of 2008, this alone will amount to quite a sizeable fall in supply of around 140,000 tonnes."
At 12.46 pm, LME aluminium for three-month delivery was trading at 2,850 usd against 2,806 usd yesterday.
Copper was also higher, with prices buoyed by a further decline in LME-monitored stockpiles of the metal this morning and as Chinese imports data released overnight indicated demand from the Asian giant remains buoyant.
LME-monitored copper stocks declined a further 4,000 tonnes this morning to 150,650 tonnes, their lowest level since last October. Copper inventories have dropped by 48,000 tonnes so far this year.
The news helped cancel out a hefty rise in inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which were up 54 pct over the last fortnight according to figures released overnight. The rise is typical for the time of year, analysts said.
Elsewhere the national customs service said Chinese imports of copper and copper products rose 6 pct in January from December to 239,000 tonnes.
"China is still consuming and importing healthy amounts of copper," said UBS analyst Robin Bhar. "This shows China has an appetite for copper and that is always going to lend some support (to prices)."
Copper for three-month delivery was up at 7,818 usd a tonne against 7,690 usd at the close yesterday.
Among other metals, lead climbed to 3,040 usd against 3,015 usd, nickel was steady at 27,900 usd, and zinc climbed up to 2,365 usd from 2,352 usd.
Tin was the only metal to buck the upward trend, falling to 16,800 usd a tonne from 17,050 usd.
jan.harvey@thomson.com
har/lht//cmr
Forex - Dollar remains under pressure ahead of US data
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:00 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar was lower against the euro and the yen ahead of a raft of US data on industrial production, consumer sentiment and import prices.
The greenback's falls were triggered by markets' gloomy interpretation of US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's assessment of the US economy yesterday.
Bernanke told the Senate Budget Committee there were strong "downside risks" to US economic growth and the Fed was ready to respond as necessary.
While Bernanke also stressed the central bank was determined to prevent inflation spiraling out of control and that economic growth should recover later in the year, markets leapt on his view that growth is set to slide in the near-term.
This confirmed expectations US borrowing costs will fall by 50 basis points when the Fed next meets to set rates in March.
"Equity markets, perhaps nervous that they had managed to rise for three consecutive days, chose to focus on the Chairmans downbeat view on growth prospects in the near-term and the expressed downside risks to the base case thereafter," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon.
Industrial production figures out this afternoon are expected to show just a modest increase in output as the decline in the manufacturing sector continues, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is set to show confidence remains fragile.
"On the face of it, none of these releases should have a big impact on rate expectations, but with the market drifting into a holiday weekend in the US, there might be scope for amplified reactions in a thin market," Maher said.
Analysts expect movement in equity markets and its subsequent impact on risk aversion is still likely to remain the key driver of the currency markets over the coming days.
Equity markets have enjoyed a relatively strong week, which has led to a pick up in the carry trades -- a risky strategy where investors sell low-yielding currencies such as the yen to invest in higher yielding ones elsewhere.
This meant the Japanese currency and dollar -- both regarded as safe haven currencies have fallen over the past week, but analysts warn this trend could easily reverse.
"Risk aversion could resurge at any moment in the case of bad news out of the financial sector, which would limit the upside potential in the euro against the dollar, and support the yen," said Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank.
European equity markets have all edged lower this morning, prompting a recovery in the yen after slipping earlier following the Bank of Japan's widely-expected decision to keep interest rates on hold.
In the subsequent press conference BoJ governor Toshihiko Fukui said there was heightened global uncertainty in financial markets and expressed concerns over the difficulties faced by small companies in Japan as profits are squeezed due to rising input costs.
"Governor Fukui's comments suggest that the BoJ are not overly confident that the strength of real GDP reported in the fourth quarter will be sustained into 2008," said Derek Halpenny, currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
Meanwhile, the pound was sharply lower against the dollar and the euro, apparently driven by fears UK banks may have to announce further writedowns in the coming months.
Reports that Swiss Bank UBS may announce further losses of around 18 bln usd due to write-downs on assets known as collateralized debt obligations (CDO) has fuelled fears its UK counterparts could follow suit.
"British banks are known for their CDO exposure, putting bank shares on the equity market under pressure -- sterling has followed straight after them," BNP Paribas analysts said.
London 1235 GMT London 0925 GMT
US dollar
yen 107.75 down from 108.25
sfr 1.0944 down from 1.0976
Euro
usd 1.4672 up from 1.4653
yen 158.11 down from 158.63
sfr 1.6058 down from 1.6087
stg 0.7475 up from 0.7457
Sterling
usd 1.9617 down from 1.9644
yen 211.42 down from 212.61
sfr 2.1474 down from 2.1560
Australian dollar
usd 0.9060 up from 0.9055
stg 0.4616 up from 0.4607
yen 97.70 down from 98.00
rachel.armstrong@thomson.com
rar/am
CME Currencies Volume/Open Interest - Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:59 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CME Currencies Volume/Open Interest - Feb 15
Data for previous business day.
Volume Open Int Change
British Pound Pit CME
BP H8 58,746 89,333 -4,335
BP M8 101 1,636 -37
BP U8 0 22 0
BP Z8 7 58 0
BP H9 0 3 0
BP M9 1 2 1
Total 58,855 91,054 -4,371
Canadian Dollar Pit CME
CD H8 45,797 91,887 454
CD M8 458 6,216 252
CD U8 10 1,620 1
CD Z8 3 908 2
CD H9 51 328 21
CD M9 0 17 0
Total 46,319 100,976 730
E-Mini Euro CME
ZE H8 1,379 1,580 6
ZE M8 23 262 8
Total 1,402 1,842 14
Euro FX Pit CME
EC H8 164,287 198,435 2,017
EC M8 488 6,829 10
EC U8 0 382 0
EC Z8 2 264 0
EC H9 0 17 0
Total 164,777 205,927 2,027
E-Mini Japense Yen CME
ZJ H8 69 225 -11
ZJ M8 4 11 0
Total 73 236 -11
Japanese Yen Pit CME
JY H8 97,792 201,685 -1,923
JY M8 45 28,180 7
JY U8 0 532 0
JY Z8 0 38 0
JY H9 0 14 0
JY M9 0 11 0
Total 97,837 230,460 -1,916
Mexican Peso Pit CME
ME G8 26 3 -23
ME H8 16,460 137,133 3,638
ME J8 0 139 0
ME K8 0 3 0
ME M8 2 24,228 0
ME U8 0 252 0
ME Z8 0 344 0
ME H9 0 35 0
ME M9 0 9 0
Total 16,488 162,146 3,615
Swiss Franc Pit CME
SF H8 55,987 58,178 -4
SF M8 32 389 8
SF U8 0 34 0
SF Z8 0 37 0
SF H9 0 4 0
Total 56,019 58,642 4
Australian Dollar Pit CME
AD H8 41,765 86,999 2,788
AD M8 143 1,649 27
AD U8 0 80 0
AD Z8 2 144 1
AD H9 0 27 0
AD M9 0 1 0
Total 41,910 88,900 2,816
Brazilian Real Pit CME
BR H8 219 8,632 210
BR Z8 0 10 0
Total 219 8,642 210
New Zealand Dollar Pit CME
NE H8 1,598 24,482 -187
NE M8 2 61 -1
Total 1,600 24,543 -188
Russian Ruble Pit CME
QRU H8 7 3,934 -6
QRU M8 0 3,091 0
QRU U8 0 7,375 0
QRU Z8 0 987 0
QRU H9 0 410 0
Total 7 15,797 -6
South African Rand Pit CME
RA H8 161 4,673 115
RA M8 40 6 -16
Total 201 4,679 99
$ Index
UX H8 0 0 0
UX M8 0 0 0
UX U8 0 0 0
UX Z8 0 0 0
UX H9 0 0 0
UX M9 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0
-By Rose Ridinger; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5174;
csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 07:59 ET (12:59 GMT)
India spot sugar falls further on abundant supply
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:53 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Indian sugar prices eased further for the second consecutive week to Friday, weighed by higher supply of the commodity in February.
The country's food ministry has raised the supply quota for the month of February to 1.4 mln metric tonnes from the earlier 1.3 mln in anticipation of the higher demand due to upcoming Hindu festivals.
In India, the central government decides the quantity sugar mills can sell in the domestic market at the start of each month.
analysts expect prices to firm up in the near term on an expected drop in the country's sugar produce.
India's agriculture minister Sharad Pawar had said recently sugar production in the crop year 2007-08 is expected to come down to 26 mln tonnes from the current 28 mln due to low yields in some states.
Analysts expect the country's export demand to be about 3 mln tonnes in the marketing year that started in October 2007 compared with 1.5 mln tonnes in the year earlier period.
In Mumbai's Vashi market, M-30 sugar was quoted at 1,415-1,515 rupees per quintal, compared with 1,425-1,525 rupees a week earlier. One quintal is equivalent to 100 kilograms. Sugar of the S-30 variety was quoted at 1,377-1,430 rupees per quintal, compared with 1,390-1,436.
tfn.newsdesk@thomson.com
sim/jro/am
Foreign Exchanges - Continental Forward Rates
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:47 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) -
Foreign Exchanges - Continental Forward Rates
Euro
1 Month 06.00 - 09.00 dis
2 Months 14.00 - 18.00 dis
3 Months 21.00 - 25.00 dis
6 Months 43.00 - 48.00 dis
12 Months 87.00 - 97.00 dis
Denmark
1 Month 16.00 - 02.00 prm
3 Months 40.00 - 17.00 prm
Norway
1 Month 06.00 - 10.00 prm
3 Months 02.00 - 19.00 prm
Sweden
1 Month 16.00 - 04.00 prm
3 Months 37.00 - 20.00 prm
Japan
1 Month 88.00 - 75.00 prm
3 Months 253.00 - 233.00 prm
Switzerland
1 Month 53.00 - 40.00 prm
3 Months 161.00 - 135.00 prm
Canada
1 Month 28.00 - 20.00 prm
3 Months 90.00 - 72.00 prm
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
tda/jro
Dollar Forward Rates
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:43 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) -
New York
1 mth 34.79 - 34.04 prm
3 mths 119.55 - 118.55 prm
6 mths 248.70 - 247.20 prm
12 mths 483.50 - 480.50 prm
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
tda/jro
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:17 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CME/IMM Financials Volume And Open Interest - Feb 15
Data for previous business day.
Volume Open Int Change
Libor One Month
QEM G8 565 18,147 -152
QEM H8 621 11,509 198
QEM J8 1 7,895 -1
QEM K8 0 3,983 0
QEM M8 0 1,981 0
QEM N8 0 1,390 0
QEM Q8 0 1,102 0
QEM U8 0 740 0
QEM V8 0 210 0
QEM X8 0 200 0
QEM Z8 0 120 0
Total 1,187 47,277 45
Eurodollar 3 Month Pit Only
QED G8 14,565 110,862 -6,540
QED H8 271,682 1,780,370 -40,546
QED J8 373 4,316 300
QED K8 0 405 0
QED M8 399,276 1,872,969 21,574
QED U8 569,966 1,419,043 -31,885
QED Z8 461,112 1,411,361 -15,680
QED H9 452,290 1,070,668 -10,629
QED M9 339,656 818,231 -2,106
QED U9 298,124 753,346 -1,674
QED Z9 230,642 525,337 19,912
QED H0 94,550 278,403 9,505
QED M0 95,029 259,005 -8,521
QED U0 49,336 204,497 3,223
QED Z0 32,210 157,354 1,191
QED H1 18,751 103,487 556
QED M1 10,164 107,117 -63
QED U1 8,837 71,405 640
QED Z1 8,834 72,348 626
QED H2 5,993 61,010 -631
QED M2 5,061 59,825 1,034
QED U2 4,721 46,494 -996
QED Z2 3,749 27,253 -1,070
QED H3 1,195 13,494 964
QED M3 254 8,567 177
QED U3 525 8,980 -250
QED Z3 383 9,945 147
QED H4 209 13,377 -203
QED M4 7 7,431 1
QED U4 7 3,902 4
QED Z4 108 3,256 -20
QED H5 3 1,377 3
QED M5 3 802 3
QED U5 3 2,904 3
QED Z5 3 1,190 3
QED H6 3 2,180 3
QED M6 3 1,933 0
QED U6 3 958 3
QED Z6 3 1,142 0
QED H7 3 1,044 0
QED M7 3 473 0
QED U7 3 315 0
QED Z7 3 239 0
Total 3,377,665 11,298,615 -60,962
Euroyen 3 Month Libor
EL H8 0 0 0
EL M8 0 0 0
EL U8 0 0 0
EL Z8 0 0 0
EL H9 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0
Euroyen
EY H8 16 11,215 13
EY M8 205 7,474 23
EY U8 200 6,784 196
EY Z8 100 2,399 100
EY H9 9 1,266 9
EY M9 9 165 9
EY U9 0 350 0
Total 539 29,653 350
Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index
NK H8 15,605 81,801 -1,695
NK M8 1 17 1
NK U8 0 13 0
NK Z8 0 1 0
Total 15,606 81,832 -1,694
-By Rose Ridinger; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5174;
csstat@dowjones.com
EU's Almunia: Eurozone 4Q GDP Slows As Expected
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:12 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
EU's Almunia: Eurozone 4Q GDP Slows As Expected
BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--Euro-zone gross domestic product is slowing as expected, the European Union Commissioner for Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia said Friday.
Euro-zone economic growth halved in the fourth quarter, in the three months to December, to 0.4%, from the 0.8% growth rate recorded in the third quarter, data from European statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday.
Almunia said these numbers are mostly in line with the commission's expectations.
"You can't ignore the deceleration of growth," he told a conference at the Belgian National Bank.
The commission will publish its own economic forecasts Feb. 21.
-By Adam Cohen, Dow Jones Newswires; +32-2-741-1486; adam.cohen@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 08:12 ET (13:12 GMT)
DATA SNAP: Polish Jan CPI Rises To 4.3%, Above 4.1% Forecast
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:11 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
DATA SNAP: Polish Jan CPI Rises To 4.3%, Above 4.1% Forecast
By Malgorzata Halaba
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
=======================================================
January Consumer Price Index ! !
Jan Dec ! Consensus: YY +4.1% !
Month +0.8% +0.3% ! !
Year +4.3% +4.0% ! Actual: YY +4.3% !
=======================================================
WARSAW (Dow Jones)--Poland's annual inflation rate rose more than expected to 4.3% in January from 4.0% in December, according to figures released Friday by the Central Statistical Office, or GUS.
On the month, January consumer prices rose 0.8%, compared with a 0.3% rise in December, GUS said. The figures are preliminary.
The headline annual inflation rate was above the average forecast of 4.1% in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 10 bank economists and a 4.0% preliminary estimate from the finance ministry. It remains well above the upper limit of the central bank's 1.5%-3.5% tolerance band.
The result confirms that global food and commodity prices continue to lift Poland's inflation rate, already pressured by rising wages and demand, increasing the likelihood of another central bank rate hike in the first quarter.
Statistical Office Web site: http://www.stat.gov.pl
-By Malgorzata Halaba, Dow Jones Newswires; +48-22-622-2766; malgorzata.halaba@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 08:11 ET (13:11 GMT)
Metals - Aluminium builds on gains as supply issues threaten to tighten market
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:07 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Aluminium extended gains in early afternoon trade amid fears supply constraints in South Africa and China could cause stocks to tighten.
Aluminium closed 4.5 pct firmer yesterday, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, amid reports that South African power utility Eskom, which has been plagued with generating problems in recent months, was considering buying back electricity from three aluminium smelters in southern Africa.
Eskom also said power cuts to mines and smelters would last until 2012, when new electricity stations come on line, further crimping supply.
South Africa is the world's eighth largest producer of aluminium. Mines are currently receiving only around 90 pct of their usual electricity supply, and generating problems are likely to continue in the medium term.
Meanwhile production outages linked to bad weather in the world's largest aluminium producer, China, will further pressure supply. Analysts said a power outage there caused by snow could lead to a loss of 650,000 tonnes of aluminium output.
Analysts at Barclays Capital said they are raising their one-month price target for aluminium to 3,000 usd a tonne.
"As well as losses in China, there have also been production reductions in Latin America and Tajikistan, and South African losses could be much higher than we had previously expected," they said.
"If industrial users are asked to maintain the 10 pct reduction in electricity demand for the rest of 2008, this alone will amount to quite a sizeable fall in supply of around 140,000 tonnes."
At 12.46 pm, LME aluminium for three-month delivery was trading at 2,850 usd against 2,806 usd yesterday.
Copper was also higher, with prices buoyed by a further decline in LME-monitored stockpiles of the metal this morning and as Chinese imports data released overnight indicated demand from the Asian giant remains buoyant.
LME-monitored copper stocks declined a further 4,000 tonnes this morning to 150,650 tonnes, their lowest level since last October. Copper inventories have dropped by 48,000 tonnes so far this year.
The news helped cancel out a hefty rise in inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which were up 54 pct over the last fortnight according to figures released overnight. The rise is typical for the time of year, analysts said.
Elsewhere the national customs service said Chinese imports of copper and copper products rose 6 pct in January from December to 239,000 tonnes.
"China is still consuming and importing healthy amounts of copper," said UBS analyst Robin Bhar. "This shows China has an appetite for copper and that is always going to lend some support (to prices)."
Copper for three-month delivery was up at 7,818 usd a tonne against 7,690 usd at the close yesterday.
Among other metals, lead climbed to 3,040 usd against 3,015 usd, nickel was steady at 27,900 usd, and zinc climbed up to 2,365 usd from 2,352 usd.
Tin was the only metal to buck the upward trend, falling to 16,800 usd a tonne from 17,050 usd.
jan.harvey@thomson.com
har/lht//cmr
Forex - Dollar remains under pressure ahead of US data
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:00 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar was lower against the euro and the yen ahead of a raft of US data on industrial production, consumer sentiment and import prices.
The greenback's falls were triggered by markets' gloomy interpretation of US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's assessment of the US economy yesterday.
Bernanke told the Senate Budget Committee there were strong "downside risks" to US economic growth and the Fed was ready to respond as necessary.
While Bernanke also stressed the central bank was determined to prevent inflation spiraling out of control and that economic growth should recover later in the year, markets leapt on his view that growth is set to slide in the near-term.
This confirmed expectations US borrowing costs will fall by 50 basis points when the Fed next meets to set rates in March.
"Equity markets, perhaps nervous that they had managed to rise for three consecutive days, chose to focus on the Chairmans downbeat view on growth prospects in the near-term and the expressed downside risks to the base case thereafter," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon.
Industrial production figures out this afternoon are expected to show just a modest increase in output as the decline in the manufacturing sector continues, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is set to show confidence remains fragile.
"On the face of it, none of these releases should have a big impact on rate expectations, but with the market drifting into a holiday weekend in the US, there might be scope for amplified reactions in a thin market," Maher said.
Analysts expect movement in equity markets and its subsequent impact on risk aversion is still likely to remain the key driver of the currency markets over the coming days.
Equity markets have enjoyed a relatively strong week, which has led to a pick up in the carry trades -- a risky strategy where investors sell low-yielding currencies such as the yen to invest in higher yielding ones elsewhere.
This meant the Japanese currency and dollar -- both regarded as safe haven currencies have fallen over the past week, but analysts warn this trend could easily reverse.
"Risk aversion could resurge at any moment in the case of bad news out of the financial sector, which would limit the upside potential in the euro against the dollar, and support the yen," said Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank.
European equity markets have all edged lower this morning, prompting a recovery in the yen after slipping earlier following the Bank of Japan's widely-expected decision to keep interest rates on hold.
In the subsequent press conference BoJ governor Toshihiko Fukui said there was heightened global uncertainty in financial markets and expressed concerns over the difficulties faced by small companies in Japan as profits are squeezed due to rising input costs.
"Governor Fukui's comments suggest that the BoJ are not overly confident that the strength of real GDP reported in the fourth quarter will be sustained into 2008," said Derek Halpenny, currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
Meanwhile, the pound was sharply lower against the dollar and the euro, apparently driven by fears UK banks may have to announce further writedowns in the coming months.
Reports that Swiss Bank UBS may announce further losses of around 18 bln usd due to write-downs on assets known as collateralized debt obligations (CDO) has fuelled fears its UK counterparts could follow suit.
"British banks are known for their CDO exposure, putting bank shares on the equity market under pressure -- sterling has followed straight after them," BNP Paribas analysts said.
London 1235 GMT London 0925 GMT
US dollar
yen 107.75 down from 108.25
sfr 1.0944 down from 1.0976
Euro
usd 1.4672 up from 1.4653
yen 158.11 down from 158.63
sfr 1.6058 down from 1.6087
stg 0.7475 up from 0.7457
Sterling
usd 1.9617 down from 1.9644
yen 211.42 down from 212.61
sfr 2.1474 down from 2.1560
Australian dollar
usd 0.9060 up from 0.9055
stg 0.4616 up from 0.4607
yen 97.70 down from 98.00
rachel.armstrong@thomson.com
rar/am
CME Currencies Volume/Open Interest - Feb 15
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:59 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
CME Currencies Volume/Open Interest - Feb 15
Data for previous business day.
Volume Open Int Change
British Pound Pit CME
BP H8 58,746 89,333 -4,335
BP M8 101 1,636 -37
BP U8 0 22 0
BP Z8 7 58 0
BP H9 0 3 0
BP M9 1 2 1
Total 58,855 91,054 -4,371
Canadian Dollar Pit CME
CD H8 45,797 91,887 454
CD M8 458 6,216 252
CD U8 10 1,620 1
CD Z8 3 908 2
CD H9 51 328 21
CD M9 0 17 0
Total 46,319 100,976 730
E-Mini Euro CME
ZE H8 1,379 1,580 6
ZE M8 23 262 8
Total 1,402 1,842 14
Euro FX Pit CME
EC H8 164,287 198,435 2,017
EC M8 488 6,829 10
EC U8 0 382 0
EC Z8 2 264 0
EC H9 0 17 0
Total 164,777 205,927 2,027
E-Mini Japense Yen CME
ZJ H8 69 225 -11
ZJ M8 4 11 0
Total 73 236 -11
Japanese Yen Pit CME
JY H8 97,792 201,685 -1,923
JY M8 45 28,180 7
JY U8 0 532 0
JY Z8 0 38 0
JY H9 0 14 0
JY M9 0 11 0
Total 97,837 230,460 -1,916
Mexican Peso Pit CME
ME G8 26 3 -23
ME H8 16,460 137,133 3,638
ME J8 0 139 0
ME K8 0 3 0
ME M8 2 24,228 0
ME U8 0 252 0
ME Z8 0 344 0
ME H9 0 35 0
ME M9 0 9 0
Total 16,488 162,146 3,615
Swiss Franc Pit CME
SF H8 55,987 58,178 -4
SF M8 32 389 8
SF U8 0 34 0
SF Z8 0 37 0
SF H9 0 4 0
Total 56,019 58,642 4
Australian Dollar Pit CME
AD H8 41,765 86,999 2,788
AD M8 143 1,649 27
AD U8 0 80 0
AD Z8 2 144 1
AD H9 0 27 0
AD M9 0 1 0
Total 41,910 88,900 2,816
Brazilian Real Pit CME
BR H8 219 8,632 210
BR Z8 0 10 0
Total 219 8,642 210
New Zealand Dollar Pit CME
NE H8 1,598 24,482 -187
NE M8 2 61 -1
Total 1,600 24,543 -188
Russian Ruble Pit CME
QRU H8 7 3,934 -6
QRU M8 0 3,091 0
QRU U8 0 7,375 0
QRU Z8 0 987 0
QRU H9 0 410 0
Total 7 15,797 -6
South African Rand Pit CME
RA H8 161 4,673 115
RA M8 40 6 -16
Total 201 4,679 99
$ Index
UX H8 0 0 0
UX M8 0 0 0
UX U8 0 0 0
UX Z8 0 0 0
UX H9 0 0 0
UX M9 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0
-By Rose Ridinger; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5174;
csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2008 07:59 ET (12:59 GMT)
India spot sugar falls further on abundant supply
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:53 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Indian sugar prices eased further for the second consecutive week to Friday, weighed by higher supply of the commodity in February.
The country's food ministry has raised the supply quota for the month of February to 1.4 mln metric tonnes from the earlier 1.3 mln in anticipation of the higher demand due to upcoming Hindu festivals.
In India, the central government decides the quantity sugar mills can sell in the domestic market at the start of each month.
analysts expect prices to firm up in the near term on an expected drop in the country's sugar produce.
India's agriculture minister Sharad Pawar had said recently sugar production in the crop year 2007-08 is expected to come down to 26 mln tonnes from the current 28 mln due to low yields in some states.
Analysts expect the country's export demand to be about 3 mln tonnes in the marketing year that started in October 2007 compared with 1.5 mln tonnes in the year earlier period.
In Mumbai's Vashi market, M-30 sugar was quoted at 1,415-1,515 rupees per quintal, compared with 1,425-1,525 rupees a week earlier. One quintal is equivalent to 100 kilograms. Sugar of the S-30 variety was quoted at 1,377-1,430 rupees per quintal, compared with 1,390-1,436.
tfn.newsdesk@thomson.com
sim/jro/am
Foreign Exchanges - Continental Forward Rates
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:47 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) -
Foreign Exchanges - Continental Forward Rates
Euro
1 Month 06.00 - 09.00 dis
2 Months 14.00 - 18.00 dis
3 Months 21.00 - 25.00 dis
6 Months 43.00 - 48.00 dis
12 Months 87.00 - 97.00 dis
Denmark
1 Month 16.00 - 02.00 prm
3 Months 40.00 - 17.00 prm
Norway
1 Month 06.00 - 10.00 prm
3 Months 02.00 - 19.00 prm
Sweden
1 Month 16.00 - 04.00 prm
3 Months 37.00 - 20.00 prm
Japan
1 Month 88.00 - 75.00 prm
3 Months 253.00 - 233.00 prm
Switzerland
1 Month 53.00 - 40.00 prm
3 Months 161.00 - 135.00 prm
Canada
1 Month 28.00 - 20.00 prm
3 Months 90.00 - 72.00 prm
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
tda/jro
Dollar Forward Rates
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:43 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) -
New York
1 mth 34.79 - 34.04 prm
3 mths 119.55 - 118.55 prm
6 mths 248.70 - 247.20 prm
12 mths 483.50 - 480.50 prm
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
tda/jro
FOREXFC FOREX NEWS COLLECTIONS
Afternoon Interbank Intercurrency
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:40 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) -
(Rates supplied by Barclays Intl)
CANADA
TOM/NEXT 4.00 - 4.10
7 DAY 4.00 - 4.10
1 MTH 4.00 - 4.10
3 MTHS 3.80 - 3.90
6 MTHS 3.75 - 3.85
12 MTHS 3.65 - 3.75
JAPAN
TOM/NEXT 0.50 - 0.60
7 DAY 0.51 - 0.56
1 MTH 0.58 - 0.63
3 MTHS 0.85 - 0.90
6 MTHS 0.89 - 0.94
12 MTHS 1.00 - 1.05
STERLING
TOM/NEXT 5.27 - 5.32
7 DAY 5.29 - 5.34
1 MTH 5.47 - 5.55
3 MTHS 5.57 - 5.65
6 MTHS 5.52 - 5.60
12 MTHS 5.36 - 5.46
EURO
TOM/NEXT 3.98 - 4.02
7 DAY 4.05 - 4.09
1 MTH 4.13 - 4.18
3 MTHS 4.30 - 4.36
6 MTHS 4.29 - 4.35
12 MTHS 4.29 - 4.35
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
ECB's Liikanen: Central Bank Independence "Critical"
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:39 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
ECB's Liikanen: Central Bank Independence "Critical"
BRUSSELS -(Dow Jones)- European Central Bank Governing Council Member Erkki Liikanen Friday defended the central bank's focus on inflation saying stable prices are needed to ensure economic growth.
The ECB has held its key rate steady at 4% since June despite slowing economic growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve by contrast has slashed interest rates to stave off a looming recession.
"If we want to guarantee good economic growth, price stability is a prerequisite," Liikanen said.
The ECB over the past year has been criticized by some European Union governments, particularly France, for keeping interest rates too high.
Liikanen said central bank independence is "critical" to sound monetary policies.
-By Adam Cohen, Dow Jones Newswires; +32 2 741 1486; adam.cohen@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
2nd UPDATE: Greek PM Outlines Pension Reform Plan
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:36 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
2nd UPDATE: Greek PM Outlines Pension Reform Plan
(Adds analyst comment.)
ATHENS -(Dow Jones)- Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis Friday outlined the broad direction of his long-awaited pension reform proposals, giving few details but warning that the system could collapse within the next few years if no action is taken.
In a speech to parliament, Karamanlis said that the cost of funding Greece's retirees would double within the next 40 years, consuming the equivalent of 25% of total gross domestic product, up from 12.6% currently.
"The problem isn't that far away, it is immediately in front of us," he said. "The pressure on the pension system increases year by year. And that pressure will become unbearable within the next five to ten years."
In the 2007, roughly one quarter of the government's EUR55 billion budget - or about EUR15 billion - was spent on transfers to the social security system. This year, some EUR18 billion from the budget is earmarked for the pension system.
Greece's center-right New Democracy government was re-elected last September on a reform agenda and has pledged to tackle the problems facing the country's fragmented and deficit-ridden pension system within the first 12 months of its new term.
Just last year, Greece was released from special budgetary supervision from the European Union after lowering its deficit to below the E.U. limit of 3% of gross domestic product. But barring major pension reform and further budgetary consolidation, Greece's ratio of debt to gross domestic product, already the second highest in the E.U. behind Italy's, is set to balloon.
In his remarks, Karamanlis reaffirmed his intention to merge the country's 155 pension and provident funds into just a handful, while also the raising retirement age for select workers, such as working mothers.
In a bid to shore up the pension system for future generations, Karamanlis also announced the creation of a new long-term fund that would pool revenue from different sources to help pay for younger workers after 2019.
That new fund would draw on a mixture of revenue streams, including 10% of annual proceeds from future state privatizations; 4% of annual revenue collected from value-added taxes; and 10% of income earned by existing pension funds benefitting from earmarked taxes.
Karamanlis also said that the system of early retirement for arduous or hazardous occupations needed to be addressed, but offered few details.
His remarks come after vigorous union opposition to the reforms, including two nationwide general strikes in as many months.
It's widely expected that the government will submit pension reform legislation sometime next week.
Twice in the recent past, Greece has reformed its pension system - in 1992 under the previous New Democracy government, and in 2002 under the Socialists. Both reforms are credited with extending the viability of the system, but stopped short of radical reform.
"It's a fact that each government adds something to the social security system. Whether this reform will be a major step forward or not, remains to be seen," said Dimitris Maroulis, an economist at Alpha Bank. "We really have to know a bit more detail before we can understand the impact."
-By Alkman Granitsas, Dow Jones Newswires; +30 210 331 2881; alkman.granitsas@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Metals - Platinum spikes to fresh all-time high on South African supply woes
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:24 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Platinum spiked to a fresh all-time high in midday trade as the prospect of further supply outages in major producer South Africa spooked investors.
The white metal rose to a record 2,055 usd an ounce before falling back to trade at 2,046 usd an ounce at 12.04 pm, against 2,002 usd in late New York trade yesterday.
Platinum has hit a series of new highs in recent days as supply constraints in South Africa, the source of almost 80 pct of world supply of the metal, threatened to cut into inventories.
"Power shortages have led to producers sharply scaling back production forecasts and further widen the estimated market deficit, and furthermore the market is also faced with historically low levels of stock," Barclays Capital analysts said.
South African state power company Eskom, whose call to reduce power usage shut a string of mines earlier this year, said yesterday it will be operating at only 90 pct capacity until 2012, potentially crimping long-term mine output.
Eskom also offered to buy back electricity from smelters, reports said, fuelling fears the crisis could prove more protracted than initially thought.
With demand for the metal, which is used extensively in carmaking, almost price insensitive in the short term, any supply shortfall could yet push the metal substantially higher, analysts said.
Meanwhile, gold was firmer after the US dollar weakened overnight following comments from US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that suggested a further cut in US interest rates could be in the offing.
The greenback softened further against the euro this morning after the release of euro zone trade data, further boosting the precious metal's appeal as an alternative investment.
A softer dollar also makes gold, which is denominated in the US currency, cheaper for holders of other currencies.
"The return of the weak dollar/strong oil scenario should prove support for gold in the coming sessions," TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore said.
Gold was trading at 910.20 usd an ounce against 907.30 usd in late New York trade yesterday.
Among other precious metals, palladium was steady at 433 usd against 435 usd an ounce, while silver rose to 17.35 usd against 17.23 usd.
jan.harvey@thomson.com
har/am
OPEC cuts 2008 oil demand growth forecast, flags US economic slowdown
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:20 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil cartel OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2008 and said while its demand growth projections are lower than assessments from other agencies, it cannot rule out the potential for further downward revisions.
"A sharp economic slowdown, especially in the US, may further undermine demand growth in the coming months," said the cartel in its monthly report. It added current OPEC output near 32 mln bpd could help ease market fundamentals.
For 2008, OPEC sees oil demand growing by 1.2 mln bpd, a downward revision of 0.08 mln bpd from the last monthly assessment. Its forecast is sharply below the International Energy Agency's call for growth of 1.67 mln bpd this year.
OPEC is aware of this disparity, but said in its view, risks to the world economy have increased considerably since the fourth quarter of 2007 on continued turbulence in financial markets.
In addition, there is growing evidence of a slowdown in the US economy, which has fuelled fears of an outright US recession that could have potential repercussions for the rest of the world.
"These concerns have affected equity markets worldwide and to a lesser extent the commodity and oil markets," the cartel said. It added, however, it is as yet unclear to what extent growth in developing countries will be crimped.
While initial estimates indicate countries like China and India will still grow at healthy levels this year, there is a risk tighter monetary policy will restrict growth.
Turning to supply, OPEC said although it has trimmed its forecast for supply growth from non-OPEC countries, it still believes demand for its crude will fall this year.
Non-OPEC supply is seen growing by 1.1 mln bpd this year, a downward revision of 0.01 mln bpd from the last estimate, however, OPEC thinks it will have to produce less crude this year over last.
"The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 31.53 mln bpd, a decline of around 375,000 bpd compared with 2007" when oil demand growth averaged an estimated 1.2 mln bpd.
Moreoever, it believes its current output of about 32 mln bpd should help further ease market fundamentals, resulting in increases in global inventories over the coming quarters.
OPEC is scheduled to memt on March 5 to set output policy. At its last meeting in February, the cartel opted to keep output levels steady amid concerns over falling demand and economic instability.
maytaal.angel@thomson.com
ma/am
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:40 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) -
(Rates supplied by Barclays Intl)
CANADA
TOM/NEXT 4.00 - 4.10
7 DAY 4.00 - 4.10
1 MTH 4.00 - 4.10
3 MTHS 3.80 - 3.90
6 MTHS 3.75 - 3.85
12 MTHS 3.65 - 3.75
JAPAN
TOM/NEXT 0.50 - 0.60
7 DAY 0.51 - 0.56
1 MTH 0.58 - 0.63
3 MTHS 0.85 - 0.90
6 MTHS 0.89 - 0.94
12 MTHS 1.00 - 1.05
STERLING
TOM/NEXT 5.27 - 5.32
7 DAY 5.29 - 5.34
1 MTH 5.47 - 5.55
3 MTHS 5.57 - 5.65
6 MTHS 5.52 - 5.60
12 MTHS 5.36 - 5.46
EURO
TOM/NEXT 3.98 - 4.02
7 DAY 4.05 - 4.09
1 MTH 4.13 - 4.18
3 MTHS 4.30 - 4.36
6 MTHS 4.29 - 4.35
12 MTHS 4.29 - 4.35
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
ECB's Liikanen: Central Bank Independence "Critical"
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:39 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
ECB's Liikanen: Central Bank Independence "Critical"
BRUSSELS -(Dow Jones)- European Central Bank Governing Council Member Erkki Liikanen Friday defended the central bank's focus on inflation saying stable prices are needed to ensure economic growth.
The ECB has held its key rate steady at 4% since June despite slowing economic growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve by contrast has slashed interest rates to stave off a looming recession.
"If we want to guarantee good economic growth, price stability is a prerequisite," Liikanen said.
The ECB over the past year has been criticized by some European Union governments, particularly France, for keeping interest rates too high.
Liikanen said central bank independence is "critical" to sound monetary policies.
-By Adam Cohen, Dow Jones Newswires; +32 2 741 1486; adam.cohen@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
2nd UPDATE: Greek PM Outlines Pension Reform Plan
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:36 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
2nd UPDATE: Greek PM Outlines Pension Reform Plan
(Adds analyst comment.)
ATHENS -(Dow Jones)- Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis Friday outlined the broad direction of his long-awaited pension reform proposals, giving few details but warning that the system could collapse within the next few years if no action is taken.
In a speech to parliament, Karamanlis said that the cost of funding Greece's retirees would double within the next 40 years, consuming the equivalent of 25% of total gross domestic product, up from 12.6% currently.
"The problem isn't that far away, it is immediately in front of us," he said. "The pressure on the pension system increases year by year. And that pressure will become unbearable within the next five to ten years."
In the 2007, roughly one quarter of the government's EUR55 billion budget - or about EUR15 billion - was spent on transfers to the social security system. This year, some EUR18 billion from the budget is earmarked for the pension system.
Greece's center-right New Democracy government was re-elected last September on a reform agenda and has pledged to tackle the problems facing the country's fragmented and deficit-ridden pension system within the first 12 months of its new term.
Just last year, Greece was released from special budgetary supervision from the European Union after lowering its deficit to below the E.U. limit of 3% of gross domestic product. But barring major pension reform and further budgetary consolidation, Greece's ratio of debt to gross domestic product, already the second highest in the E.U. behind Italy's, is set to balloon.
In his remarks, Karamanlis reaffirmed his intention to merge the country's 155 pension and provident funds into just a handful, while also the raising retirement age for select workers, such as working mothers.
In a bid to shore up the pension system for future generations, Karamanlis also announced the creation of a new long-term fund that would pool revenue from different sources to help pay for younger workers after 2019.
That new fund would draw on a mixture of revenue streams, including 10% of annual proceeds from future state privatizations; 4% of annual revenue collected from value-added taxes; and 10% of income earned by existing pension funds benefitting from earmarked taxes.
Karamanlis also said that the system of early retirement for arduous or hazardous occupations needed to be addressed, but offered few details.
His remarks come after vigorous union opposition to the reforms, including two nationwide general strikes in as many months.
It's widely expected that the government will submit pension reform legislation sometime next week.
Twice in the recent past, Greece has reformed its pension system - in 1992 under the previous New Democracy government, and in 2002 under the Socialists. Both reforms are credited with extending the viability of the system, but stopped short of radical reform.
"It's a fact that each government adds something to the social security system. Whether this reform will be a major step forward or not, remains to be seen," said Dimitris Maroulis, an economist at Alpha Bank. "We really have to know a bit more detail before we can understand the impact."
-By Alkman Granitsas, Dow Jones Newswires; +30 210 331 2881; alkman.granitsas@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Metals - Platinum spikes to fresh all-time high on South African supply woes
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:24 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Platinum spiked to a fresh all-time high in midday trade as the prospect of further supply outages in major producer South Africa spooked investors.
The white metal rose to a record 2,055 usd an ounce before falling back to trade at 2,046 usd an ounce at 12.04 pm, against 2,002 usd in late New York trade yesterday.
Platinum has hit a series of new highs in recent days as supply constraints in South Africa, the source of almost 80 pct of world supply of the metal, threatened to cut into inventories.
"Power shortages have led to producers sharply scaling back production forecasts and further widen the estimated market deficit, and furthermore the market is also faced with historically low levels of stock," Barclays Capital analysts said.
South African state power company Eskom, whose call to reduce power usage shut a string of mines earlier this year, said yesterday it will be operating at only 90 pct capacity until 2012, potentially crimping long-term mine output.
Eskom also offered to buy back electricity from smelters, reports said, fuelling fears the crisis could prove more protracted than initially thought.
With demand for the metal, which is used extensively in carmaking, almost price insensitive in the short term, any supply shortfall could yet push the metal substantially higher, analysts said.
Meanwhile, gold was firmer after the US dollar weakened overnight following comments from US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that suggested a further cut in US interest rates could be in the offing.
The greenback softened further against the euro this morning after the release of euro zone trade data, further boosting the precious metal's appeal as an alternative investment.
A softer dollar also makes gold, which is denominated in the US currency, cheaper for holders of other currencies.
"The return of the weak dollar/strong oil scenario should prove support for gold in the coming sessions," TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore said.
Gold was trading at 910.20 usd an ounce against 907.30 usd in late New York trade yesterday.
Among other precious metals, palladium was steady at 433 usd against 435 usd an ounce, while silver rose to 17.35 usd against 17.23 usd.
jan.harvey@thomson.com
har/am
OPEC cuts 2008 oil demand growth forecast, flags US economic slowdown
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 12:20 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil cartel OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2008 and said while its demand growth projections are lower than assessments from other agencies, it cannot rule out the potential for further downward revisions.
"A sharp economic slowdown, especially in the US, may further undermine demand growth in the coming months," said the cartel in its monthly report. It added current OPEC output near 32 mln bpd could help ease market fundamentals.
For 2008, OPEC sees oil demand growing by 1.2 mln bpd, a downward revision of 0.08 mln bpd from the last monthly assessment. Its forecast is sharply below the International Energy Agency's call for growth of 1.67 mln bpd this year.
OPEC is aware of this disparity, but said in its view, risks to the world economy have increased considerably since the fourth quarter of 2007 on continued turbulence in financial markets.
In addition, there is growing evidence of a slowdown in the US economy, which has fuelled fears of an outright US recession that could have potential repercussions for the rest of the world.
"These concerns have affected equity markets worldwide and to a lesser extent the commodity and oil markets," the cartel said. It added, however, it is as yet unclear to what extent growth in developing countries will be crimped.
While initial estimates indicate countries like China and India will still grow at healthy levels this year, there is a risk tighter monetary policy will restrict growth.
Turning to supply, OPEC said although it has trimmed its forecast for supply growth from non-OPEC countries, it still believes demand for its crude will fall this year.
Non-OPEC supply is seen growing by 1.1 mln bpd this year, a downward revision of 0.01 mln bpd from the last estimate, however, OPEC thinks it will have to produce less crude this year over last.
"The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 31.53 mln bpd, a decline of around 375,000 bpd compared with 2007" when oil demand growth averaged an estimated 1.2 mln bpd.
Moreoever, it believes its current output of about 32 mln bpd should help further ease market fundamentals, resulting in increases in global inventories over the coming quarters.
OPEC is scheduled to memt on March 5 to set output policy. At its last meeting in February, the cartel opted to keep output levels steady amid concerns over falling demand and economic instability.
maytaal.angel@thomson.com
ma/am
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